Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 915 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
$$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 131049
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue May 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near Boke, then extends southwestward to near 05N18W. An ITCZ
continues from 05N18W across 02N35W to near Macapa in the State of
Amapa, Brazil. Widely scattered moderate convection is present
south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N between 10W and 18W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ fro 01N to 06N
between 18W and the coast of northeastern Brazil/French Guiana.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and northwestern Colombia.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The southwestern end of a weakening cold front is causing widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida
Keys. A 1016 mb high pressure over the southeastern Gulf is
strengthening this morning. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to
4 ft exist at the south-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate
to fresh S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the west-central
Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Gulf.
For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
at the Florida Straits will linger through this morning.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned high pressure should steadily
strengthen this afternoon through Wed. This will cause fresh to
strong southerly winds along with moderate to rough seas at the
northwestern Gulf and off the Mexico/Texas border this afternoon
through Thu. As the high drifts eastward, moderate to fresh
southerly winds will linger at the western and central Gulf
through the weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two modest surface troughs are producing widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern basin, and in the Gulf
of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Tight gradient between a
broad surface ridge near 25N and low pressure over northern
Colombia is sustaining strong to near-gale easterly winds and seas
of 9 to 11 ft at the south-central basin. Mainly fresh ENE to E
winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are evident at the north-central and
southwestern basin, except gentle to moderate ENE winds with 5 to
7 ft seas in moderate NE swell near Costa Rica and Panama.
Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate
the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail at the northwestern basin.
For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds along with
moderate to rough seas will persist across the central Caribbean
through this morning, and off northwestern Colombia through this
evening. These winds offshore from northwestern Colombia will
occasionally gust to gale force this morning. Both winds and seas
are expected to gradually diminish tonight through Wed. Fresh E
winds with moderate to rough seas are anticipated at the
northeastern basin through this evening, including the Atlantic
passages. Finally, pulsing fresh to strong E winds during the
nighttime hours are going to occur in the Gulf of Honduras by Wed
evening.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weakening cold front curves southwestward from off the Carolina
coast across 31N77W to southeast of the Florida Keys. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary
from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 74W
and 80W. Farther east, a surface trough extends southwestward from
the north-central Atlantic across 31N57W to 27N67W. Patchy
showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of this feature.
Convergent trades are coupling with a broad upper-level trough in
the vicinity to generate scattered moderate convection just east
of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
An elongated 1025 mb high near 30N37W is supporting gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 23N between 35W and
70W. To the west, moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to S
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident near the aforementioned cold
front north of 20N between 70W and 78W. Gentle to moderate W to SW
winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft exist off the eastern Florida coast.
For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N/23N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to
9 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
west of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and
rough seas will linger offshore of Florida through today as the
aforementioned cold front moves east toward the western Atlantic.
As the cold front lifts northeastward into the western Atlantic
tonight and Wed, winds will become SW to W behind the front and
weaken. Farther south, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected
each afternoon and evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through
Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough
seas in mixed NE and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week,
including across the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean.
$$
Chan
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Sat Nov 30 2024
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
$$ Forecaster Beven
NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131433
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N94W to 10N120W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N110W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 08N east of
87W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N to 10N between 93W and 105W, and from 04N to 10N between
120W and 135W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak cold front extends across Baja California Norte to
Guadalupe Island. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft,
are found off Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds are
south of Cabo San Lucas as well as south of Southern Mexico.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are in the 4-6 ft
range. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the northern Gulf of
California, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the Gulf.
Seas are in the 3-4 ft range in the northern Gulf of California,
and 2-3 ft in the remainder of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the front will slow down and weaken as it
moves into the northern Gulf of California later today, before
dissipating tonight into Wed. Strong winds may briefly pulse
across the northern Gulf of California today ahead of and
following the front. High pressure building in the wake of the
front will freshen winds west of the Baja California peninsula
through mid week, with large NW swell into Fri. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will
prevail elsewhere.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are over and downstream
the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6
ft are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds,
and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected
in the Papagayo region through Fri, pulsing to fresh to strong at
night into mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will persist
elsewhere. Expect moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu. Slight to
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds N of the
ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 6 to 7
ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the waters N of 20N, and low pressure in the vicinity of the
ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ
and west of 120W through mid week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range in
NW swell will move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W
through mid week, and combine with seas from trade winds from
10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the week.
$$
AL
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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