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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has 
formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is 
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further 
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form 
near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend 
if the low remains offshore.  Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and 
southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal 
sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday.  An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Blake
    

220 
AXNT20 KNHC 040527
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jul 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has
formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive
for further development, and a tropical or subtropical depression
could form near the southeastern United States late today or over
the weekend if the low remains offshore. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-
central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today. This disturbance
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the
next 48 hours and also during the next 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: 
A tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system 
north of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa will support 
gale-force NE winds with severe gusts close and between the Canary
Islands from 04/18 UTC until at least 05/00 UTC according to 
Meteo France. Seas will be moderate to rough, peaking around 11 
ft. Mariners are also advised that visibility is reduced to 
moderate or poor due to sand haze.

For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast
listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen near the southern part of the wave from 08N to 12N and between
18W and 27W.

Another eastern tropical wave is along 35W, south of 19N, moving
westward around 15 kt. This wave is surrounded by a very stable 
and dry environment. Only isolated showers are near its southern 
part.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident in the 
eastern Caribbean and over Venezuela within 120 nm of the trough 
axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 19N, 
moving westward near 15 kt. A few showers are noted in the SW
Caribbean near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues west-southwestward to 13N25W
and to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 05N52W. Aside from
convection associated to the tropical waves, no other convection 
is presently occurring.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A complex weather system over the SE United States and divergence
aloft is producing a large area of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms that affects most of the NE Gulf waters. Drier
conditions likely associated with Saharan dust dominate the
remainder of the basin. At the surface, a weak high pressure 
system supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
slight seas in the eastern Bay of Campeche. In the rest of the
Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, surface trough will prevail across the NE Gulf through
the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to  
develop along this trough over the waters near Florida. Weak high 
pressure will then prevail into early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please 
see the Tropical Wave section for more details.

The pressure gradient resulting from the combination of central 
Atlantic high pressure and relatively low pressure in northern 
Colombia is leading to fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas prevail in the
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent. Aside from the convection
associated with the passing tropical waves, generally dry
conditions are noted over the tropical waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to 
strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean 
through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of 
moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras beginning on Sat
night. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the NE Atlantic. Please see the 
Special Features section for more details. Two tropical waves are 
moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please see the Tropical Wave 
section for more details. 

Unsettled weather conditions continue across the waters off NE
Florida and the NW Bahamas due to favorable upper level pattern
and abundant moisture. The pressure gradient between a low
pressure in the SE United States and a subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic support fresh to strong southerly winds north of
27N and west of 77W. Moderate seas are evident in the area
described. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate
seas are noted off northern Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas. Farther
east, a surface trough centered north of Puerto Rico is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 25N
and west of 55W. In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west
of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
strong 1034 mb high pressure system in the far NE Atlantic that is
forcing fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas east
of 40W and north of 19N. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are found south of 25N and west of 40W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula eastward to the 
adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean are associated 
with a weak surface trough of low pressure. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, 
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region
over the weekend while the system drifts northward or 
northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is 
possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida 
through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the 
Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
on Friday, if necessary. There is a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation within the next two days, and also through the 
next 7 days. 

$$
Delgado
  

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly 
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles 
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is 
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves 
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs/Blake
    

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040224
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Gale Warning: The remnant low of 
of former Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 21.5N113W, 
with a pressure of 1005 mb. Gale force winds are noted NE of the
center of the remnant low, with seas peaking near 12 ft. The low
is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves NW over the next
couple of days, with winds and seas decreasing. Winds are
expected to diminish below gale force tonight. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
further details. 

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. 
This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development 
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 98W from 03N northward. 
Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N94W to 11N108W to
08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N
between 80W and 95W, and from 08N to 14N between 95W and 117W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on a Gale Warning issued for Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, and 
on the possibility for tropical cyclone development south of
southern Mexico.

Aside from the gale conditions associated to Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Flossie, fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-8 ft, are 
noted S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds, and
seas of 4-5 ft, are over the central Gulf of California. Gentle 
to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie will gradually 
weaken and dissipate through early Sat, with winds and seas 
decreasing. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected over the 
Gulf of California through Fri before diminishing. Fresh to 
occasionally strong east to southeast winds and rough seas are 
possible off Oaxaca and Guerrero as an area of low pressure 
develops and moves west- northwestward offshore of the coast of 
southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is expected 
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west- northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are noted in the Gulf
of Papagayo. Gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas
are in the 6-7 ft range across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will diminish Fri afternoon. Moderate to large 
cross-equatorial south to southwest swell will propagate through 
the waters southwest of the Galapagos Islands starting Fri. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in 
southerly swell are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 110W.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of
the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas
are in the 6-7 ft range over much of the waters. 

Cross-equatorial swell wil bring seas of 8 ft over the waters 
south of about 01N between 102W and 115W starting later tonight, 
with little change through Sat. Expect for increasing winds and 
seas over the far eastern part of the area this weekend as a
tropical cyclone may develop and move over these waters.

$$
AL
  

No Storms to Report