|
Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
915 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May
15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued as conditions warrant.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NNNN
|
Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 231025
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 23 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, and
continues southwestward to 06N20W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ and extends southwestward to near 03S42W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 00N-03N between 22W-33W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Ridging prevails across the Gulf. Fresh ENE winds in the SW Gulf
are being driven by a surface trough moving off the west coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, moderate winds prevail over the
southern two-thirds of the Gulf with light to gentle winds to the
north. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the southern basin and 2 to 4 ft in
the northern third.
For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of the area will bring
mainly gentle SE winds and relatively tranquil marine conditions
to the NE half of the basin into the weekend. The SW Gulf will
experience moderate fresh east to southeast winds during this same
period, locally pulsing to strong off the NW Yucatan Peninsula
each night as a diurnal trough affects the waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
a 1009 mb Colombian low is forcing fresh to locally strong NE to
E winds over the S Central Caribbean, over the Windward and Mona
Passages, as well as downwind of Hispaniola. A surface trough just
east of the Lesser Antilles is disrupting the trades, causing
winds to only be gentle over the E Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft
over the SW Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the basin will
support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE winds across the
central and western Caribbean today. The high will gradually
shift eastward which will loosen the pressure gradient and
diminish winds through late week. Moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will then prevail over the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The surface low that had been near 25N60W has opened and become
part of the broader surface trough early this morning. This trough
is oriented along 60W between 20N and 30N. Over the northern
portion of the trough, the pressure gradient between it and the
subtropical ridge to the N is leading to fresh to strong E winds N
of 25N between 50W and 68W, along with rough seas. Scattered
moderate convection, mainly induced by upper level divergence on
the east side of the associated mid and upper level trough, is
present N of 25N between 50W and 60W, where some locally near-gale
force winds are likely in the stronger thunderstorms. Moderate to
fresh NE winds prevail over the Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and
Florida Straits, otherwise moderate or weaker winds dominate the
remaining areas W of the surface trough. To the E, widespread
moderate to fresh easterly trades dominate with seas of 5 to 8 ft.
Areas E of 20W and N of 20N are seeing fresh to strong NE winds,
locally near gale-force between the Canary Islands. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are E of 20W and S of 20N.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned strong winds and
rough seas N of 25N and E of 67W will continue today, but
gradually diminish starting tonight as the trough weakens and the
pressure gradient relaxes into into the weekend.
$$
Konarik
|
Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sat Nov 30 2024
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season. Routine issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
|
Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
847
AXPZ20 KNHC 230944
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Apr 23 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
and continues to 09N88W to 04N103W. The ITCZ extends from there
to 07N122W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N E of 93W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 10N W of 114W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the Baja California
offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds across all
of the waters. Locally moderate SW winds are ongoing over the
northern Gulf of California N of 28N due to the southern
extension of a surface trough. Seas are 5-6 ft in mixed NW and SW
swell over the Pacific waters, and 1-2 ft along the Gulf of
California.
For the forecast, the weak ridge of high pressure will dominate the
Mexican offshore waters for the next few days, continuing the
quiescent wind and wave conditions. Looking ahead, a stronger
pressure gradient will increase NW winds along the Baja
California peninsula to fresh to locally strong beginning on Fri
night through the weekend. Fresh to strong gap winds are also
possible in Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect
the offshore waters of Panama, Costa Rica and Colombia. A strong
ridge over the W Atlantic and NW Caribbean is forcing fresh to
strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region, reaching
downwind to 88W per recent scatterometer data. The scatterometer
also show fresh to strong southerly wind S of the monsoon trough
over the Costa Rica offshore waters. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft in SW swell.
For the forecast, NE to E gap winds are expected to pulse to fresh to
strong over the Gulf of Papagayo region through today, then to
moderate to fresh at night through the weekend. Otherwise,
moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the Central American
and equatorial Pacific offshore zones through Sun night. Looking
ahead, moderate S swell should impact the equatorial zones on Sat
and Sun.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A 1031 mb high pressure is located at 40N142W with a ridge
extending southeastward across the subtropical waters and into
the tropics to about 15N. A modest pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to
fresh NE trades from 03N to 17N west of 120W with 7-9 ft seas in
mixed swell. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker with 5-7 ft
in mixed N and SW swell.
For the forecast, little change in winds is expected through the
end of the week. Looking ahead, a weak cold front should reach
our N border on Fri night and Sat, but only accompanied by
moderate winds. After the passage of the cold front, the ridge
will shift southeastward, enhancing the area of fresh trades Sat
and Sun. A moderate S swell is anticipated to reach our S border
east of 120W beginning on Thu night and continuing until Sat
night.
$$
Ramos
|
Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
|
|
|
