ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: 
A 1025 mb high currently over southern Texas is building southward,
supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and very rough seas 
across the western Gulf of Mexico. Offshore from Veracruz, winds 
are peaking at strong to gale-force, while seas are ranging 
between 9 and 12 ft. These hazardous marine conditions will 
persist until early Thursday morning. Both winds and seas will 
gradually subside starting late Thu morning. Please refer to the 
High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

Most of the monsoon trough remains over the African Continent. An 
ITCZ stretches westward from just offshore of northern Sierra
Leone to 06N34W, then turns northwestward to 11N42W. Scattered 
moderate convection is up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ
east of 39W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up near the western end of the ITCZ from 08N to 14N
between 39W and 43W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering 
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning 
near Veracruz. 

A cold front curves southwestward from near Naples, Florida across
northwestern Cuba and the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Patchy showers are seen across the Florida Straits and 
Yucatan Channel, including the Florida Keys. Moderate to fresh NW 
to N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the Florida 
Straits and Yucatan Channel. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh 
to strong NW to N winds with 6 to 10 ft seas prevail for the rest 
of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and very rough seas will
persist behind the front through the night. Afterward, high 
pressure will build in the wake of the front with marine 
conditions gradually improving across the Gulf from west to east 
through the end of the week. The high pressure will become 
centered over the northeastern Gulf early Sun, sustaining gentle 
to moderate SE to S winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to 
locally fresh SE to S return flow over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent southerly winds to the south of a cold front over the
Yucatan Channel are causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of western Cuba. A modest surface trough is
generating patchy showers between Jamaica and Haiti. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to
5 ft are present across the waters adjacent to the Yucatan
Peninsula and Channel. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas
are noted north of Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE 
to SE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the 
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue southeastward and 
reach from central Cuba along 80W to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu 
morning. It will then reach from eastern Cuba to near Cabo 
Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Fri morning, and from the Windward 
Passage to near the Costa Rica-Panama border Sat morning, where 
the front should stall and gradually dissipate. Fresh to strong N 
winds and building seas will follow the front through Sat before 
winds begin to veer quickly NE to E and diminish modestly. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N45W to 27N60W, then continues as a stationary front to 
28N70W. Patchy showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of
this boundary. To the southeast, a surface trough runs 
northeastward from near the northern Leeward Islands to 28N46W. 
Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 
nm along either side of this feature. Farther east, convergent
southerly winds are producing scattered moderate convection
north of 23N between 38W and 43W. At the Tropical Atlantic,
another surface trough is inducing scattered moderate convection
from 09N to 16N between 44W and 51W. An upper-level low near
31N21W continues to trigger isolated thunderstorms near the Canary
Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW winds and seas at 4 to 7
ft are evident north of 28N between 72W and the Florida-Georgia
coast. Farther east near the cold/stationary front mentioned
earlier, moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in
large NW swell dominate north of 26N between 35W and 72W. To the
south from 16N to 26N/28N between 35W and the Bahamas/Leeward
Islands, gentle E to SSE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate
northerly swell exist. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift north of
the area through early Thu, ahead of a stronger front entering
the waters off northeast Florida tonight, followed by fresh to
strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas. The front will reach
from 31N74W to central Cuba by Thu morning, from 31N68W to 
eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N61W to near the Windward
Passage on Sat morning. The front will stall in that general 
vicinity and gradually dissipate through the end of the weekend. 
Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of 
the front north of 25N. 

$$

Chan

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Wed Nov 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210838
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Nov 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds are 
developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure builds 
over central Mexico in the wake of a strong cold front moving 
into Central America. Strong gales will be possible at times 
through late tonight. Rough seas will occur across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through this weekend, with very rough seas likely in
the area of strongest wind. Seas will peak around 17 ft today. 
Gale force winds will end Sat morning with strong winds ending 
by early Sun morning. Seas will fall below 12 ft Fri afternoon 
and below 8 ft by Sat night. 

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N93W to a 1011 mb low near
15N101W to a 1009 mb low near 09N125W to 09N127W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 08N to 11N between 119W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event.

A 1023 mb high is centered near 31N122W and ridging extends 
across the Baja California offshore waters. This pattern 
supports gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds across the 
Baja California offshore waters and points farther south off the 
coast of southwestern Mexico. A residual N to NW swell is 
promoting seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 19N and west of 114.5W. 
Elsewhere, the tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a 
trough in northwestern Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW 
winds in the Gulf of California, including the waters 
surrounding Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in this region. 

For the forecast, gale force winds will occur across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec into Sat morning. Strong gales will be possible at 
times through late tonight. Rough seas will occur across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through this weekend, with very rough seas 
likely in the area of strongest wind. These gales and rough seas 
will reach beyond 300 NM downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
into early Sat. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NW winds will 
continue to pulse in the Gulf of California into early Fri. 
Rough seas off the coast of Baja California will subside this 
morning. Another long-period NW swell will reintroduce rough 
seas offshore of Baja California Norte later today before seas 
subside on Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring offshore of 
Costa Rica southeastward through the coastal waters of Colombia, 
where seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed. Elsewhere, gentle to 
locally moderate W to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail 
across the remainder of the Central and South American offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and very rough 
seas associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will
impact the far western Guatemala offshore waters this morning 
through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will continue in
the offshore waters of Costa Rica through Colombia through Fri. 
Fresh to strong E to NE winds will then pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo Fri into Sun. Otherwise, moderate SE to SW winds will 
prevail across the offshore waters through this weekend. Looking 
ahead, rough seas in SW swell will reach the waters off the 
coast of Ecuador by early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high is centered near 31N122W and ridging extends 
across the waters north of the monsoon trough. A tightening 
pressure gradient between the ridge and a cold front approaching 
30N140W is supporting fresh to locally strong SW winds north of 
27N and west of 128W. A new N swell is leading to seas of 8 to 
11 ft in this region. Farther south, moderate E to NE winds are 
occurring along the southern periphery of the ridge and west of 
110W, with locally fresh NE winds occurring near a 1009 mb low 
near 09N125W. Multiple sets of NW swell are promoting seas of 7 
to 9 ft north of 15N, and pockets of 7 to 8 ft seas are noted 
along the monsoon trough, in a combination of NW and SW swell, 
along with shorter-period NE seas due to trade wind flow. South 
of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 5 
to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist and shift southward
across the waters through this weekend. The cold front 
approaching 30N140W will lead to fresh to locally strong SW winds
north of 27N and west of 126W into Fri morning before winds 
diminish. Rough seas along the monsoon trough and off the coast 
of Baja California will slowly subside through Fri. Another long-
period NW swell will reintroduce rough seas north of 25N through
Sat. Looking ahead, a complex wave pattern will develop by Sun 
over the tropical eastern Pacific from 05N to 10N between 105W 
and 115W in a mix of NW and SW swell, along with a component of 
shorter period NE swell generated by the Tehuantepec gap wind 
event. SW swell to 8 ft will overtake the region south of 10N 
and east of 115W Mon and Tue.

$$
ADAMS

No Storms to Report