ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 050936
   SPC AC 050936

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

   Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale
   agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday).  At this point,
   more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the
   amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western
   U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance.  These differences are
   significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system
   will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a
   persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the
   south-central and southeastern CONUS.  Stronger/inland low
   development along this front would potential bring an increase in
   severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at
   this point to highlight through the second half of the period.

   Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic
   zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and
   east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before
   reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of
   day 5.  However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at
   this time, which should preclude severe risk.  As the low deepens
   northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front
   should settle back into its recently persistent position from the
   southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6
   period ahead of the advancing western upper trough.  Again, with
   weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm
   sector, severe weather is not expected.

   ..Goss.. 02/05/2025

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