ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 090859
   SPC AC 090859

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that
   large-scale mid/upper troughing will continue digging inland of the
   Pacific coast, before gradually turning eastward toward the Rockies
   during the early portion of next week.  While this probably will be
   accompanied by the development of modestly deep surface troughing
   across the Great Plains, appreciable low-level moisture return, in
   the wake of a mid-level low/trough slowly accelerating northeast of
   the lower Mississippi Valley, through parts of the Mid South and
   Ohio Valley, remains uncertain.

   Even into mid-week, when it appears that the troughing may begin to
   emerge from the Intermountain West/Rockies, while the downstream
   troughing only slowly progresses across the Mid Atlantic, moisture
   return (and destabilization) to the vicinity of the stronger forcing
   for ascent may remain a potential limiting factor to severe
   thunderstorm development.

   Toward next Thursday/Friday, there does appear consensus that
   stronger destabilization may begin to become better coupled with
   large-scale forcing for ascent across the upper Mississippi
   Valley/Midwest into Ohio Valley, as the mid-level troughing
   progresses northeastward and eastward, around the periphery of
   mid/upper ridging building north-northeast of the lower Mississippi
   Valley.  This appears to include at least a conditional risk for
   organized severe convection, including a few supercells.  Although
   lingering uncertainties preclude introducing 15 percent or greater
   severe probabilities at this time, this may change in later outlooks
   for this period.

   ..Kerr.. 05/09/2025

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