ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010830
   SPC AC 010830

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the
   central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC
   as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south
   of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
   in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast
   along/ahead of a decaying cold front. 

   Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east
   from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream
   over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area
   will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday,
   as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the
   wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening
   and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from
   both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS
   highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across
   the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within
   this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably
   delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks.

   ..Grams.. 06/01/2025

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