ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010900
   SPC AC 010900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Plains and Upper
   Midwest on Friday. This will likely be the most substantial severe
   weather threat during the extended period before broad, strong
   ridging builds across much of the eastern/central CONUS. 

   ...Day 4/Friday...
   As a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the northern
   Plains on Friday, strong southerly flow will advect moisture
   northward across a broad warm sector near the Upper Midwest. This
   will result in moderate to strong instability as temperatures warm
   well into the 80s. Widespread thunderstorms are likely along the
   frontal zone during the afternoon/evening. 35 to 40 knots of
   mid-level flow will overspread the warm sector which will provide
   some shear for storm organization. However, southwesterly surface
   winds will also increase during the afternoon within the warm front
   and therefore, the net shear may remain somewhat minimal. Some
   organized storms with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts
   are possible, but the aforementioned concerns about deep-layer shear
   preclude the confidence needed for 15% severe weather probabilities
   at this time.

   Beyond Day 4, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much
   of the central and eastern CONUS with widespread thunderstorm
   activity likely. However, shear will remain mostly nebulous with the
   stronger mid-level flow confined to areas north of the better
   instability. Therefore, some marginal regional severe weather threat
   will be likely most days, but a more organized severe weather risk
   appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Bentley.. 07/01/2025

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