SPC AC 060556

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
   hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of
   2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible.

   ...Central High Plains to the Southern Plains...
   Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the
   Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse and related 30-40-kt speed
   maximum will overspread the northern/central High Plains during the
   afternoon/evening time frame. This will aid in the development of
   scattered eastward-moving thunderstorms off the higher terrain of
   southeastern WY and CO, while additional storms potentially
   develop/spread southward along antecedent outflow farther east in
   Nebraska. Ahead of this activity, steep deep-layer lapse rates will
   yield moderate surface-based instability, which combined with an
   elongated/straight hodograph (30-40 kt of effective shear), will
   favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters.
   Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and locally severe gusts
   will be possible with the longer-lived storms. With time, some
   upscale growth into one or more convective clusters will pose an
   increasing risk of scattered severe gusts (some possibly 75+ mph).

   Over the KS/OK border, thunderstorm development is expected along a
   stalled surface boundary, where a strongly unstable air mass and
   25-30 kt of effective shear will favor a few strong to severe storms
   capable of producing large hail and severe downbursts. 

   ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...
   Preceding a broad midlevel trough over the Midwest, a belt of
   30-40-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great
   Lakes into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This will promote
   a few loosely organized clusters along an eastward-moving cold
   front, capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

   ...Maine...
   Around 40-50 kt of westerly flow will overspread Maine, while a cold
   front moves across the area during the afternoon. Given sufficient
   surface-based instability ahead of the front, a few organized
   cells/clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. 

   ...Coastal Carolinas...
   Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear accompanying Tropical Storm
   Chantal may favor a couple transient low-topped supercell structures
   across eastern NC. While instability will be marginal, a tornado or
   two cannot be ruled out with any rotating storms that evolve.

   ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/06/2025

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