SPC AC 011956

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

   Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible
   this afternoon and evening across central and east Texas. More
   isolated severe thunderstorms are still possible across parts of the
   Middle Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, High Plains, northern
   Rockies, and south Florida.

   ...20Z Update...
   Much of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. A pair
   of supercells persist across portions of eastern TX. To the
   northwest of these storms resides a baroclinic boundary. Though
   overall forcing for ascent is weak across the southern Plains, the
   presence of the boundary, in tandem with strong diurnal heating, may
   support additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across
   parts of central into eastern TX. Severe gusts and large hail
   (perhaps exceeding 2 inches in diameter at times) will be the main
   threats.

   Similarly, strong surface heating across the Middle TN Valley into
   the Carolinas, central High Plains, and northern Rockies, will
   support strong storm development through the afternoon, with severe
   hail/wind the primary hazards. Scattered thunderstorm development is
   ongoing across central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, and a
   couple instances of hail/strong wind gusts remain possible for at
   least a few more hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/01/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/

   ...Central/East Texas...
   A residual small cluster of storms has persisted through late
   morning across northeast Texas. Additional and increasingly
   surface-based storm development will be possible this afternoon,
   particularly into mid/late afternoon. This will be focused where
   outflow/differential heating influences interface with an
   increasingly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) environment near a
   northwest/southeast-oriented synoptic boundary and related
   instability gradient. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt
   will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells,
   posing a risk for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. A
   sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow could
   have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented
   low-level shear. These storms may cluster later today, or otherwise
   persist south-southeastward toward east-central/southeast Texas
   through early and mid-evening including the I-35/I-45 corridors.

   ...Tennessee to the Carolinas...
   Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating
   combined with seasonably cool temperatures aloft associated with a
   deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate
   destabilization ahead of a weak surface wave and advancing front. 
   Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon,
   with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent
   centered on parts of North Carolina. Modestly favorable effective
   shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms
   capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived
   clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat.

   ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains...
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the
   Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak
   to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will
   support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an
   attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. This development
   should generally focus near the Montana/Idaho/Wyoming border
   vicinity as well as near/east of the Bighorns.

   ...South Florida...
   Influenced by moderately strong westerlies aloft, some
   strong/locally severe storms may remain possible today along and
   south of a boundary that has been effectively reinforced by early
   day storms.

   ...Eastern Colorado/New Mexico...
   Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along
   and east of the higher terrain in eastern Colorado/New Mexico. While
   deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests
   some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon.
   Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to
   severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely
   organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with
   strong to locally severe outflow winds. 

   ...Southern California into southern/central Arizona...
   A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of
   southern California/Arizona later today. Cool temperatures aloft
   will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and
   precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of
   locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few
   strong storms could occur.

   ...Great Basin...
   High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from
   parts of Nevada into western Utah. Buoyancy and shear are expected
   to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected,
   however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this
   regime through early evening.

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