SPC AC 180041

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

   Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible tonight
   across parts of the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys and
   adjacent Gulf Coast vicinity.

   ...01Z Update...
   Downstream of building mid/upper ridging across the northeast
   Pacific through Alaska/Yukon vicinity, large-scale mid/upper trough
   amplification is underway along a positively tilted axis roughly
   extending across the Hudson Bay vicinity into the lee of the
   southern Rockies.  This has been preceded by the east-northeastward
   acceleration of initially significant troughing emerging from the
   southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, which is becoming
   increasingly sheared across the southern tier of the United States.
   One still notable embedded short wave perturbation is in the process
   of accelerating east-northeast of the southern Great Plains, and
   forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by 12Z Saturday.

   In response to the aforementioned short wave, low-level warm
   advection now overspreading the southeastern Great Plains and lower
   Mississippi Valley will continue to develop eastward tonight.  Even
   with a sizable westerly component to the low-level wind fields, it
   appears that elevated moisture return emanating from a slowly
   modifying boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to
   weak destabilization.  Latest model output continues to suggest that
   this may become sufficient for scattered, generally weak,
   thunderstorm activity as cooling aloft begins to overspread areas
   across and east/southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by around
   05-06Z.

   ..Kerr.. 01/18/2025

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