231
FXUS66 KSTO 252138
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
138 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026

..KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warming conditions likely over the next week with above normal
   temperatures

 - Potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly over the
   northern Sacramento Valley, foothills and mountains this
   weekend into early next week, otherwise dry weather prevails

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today - Friday...
Showers ended over the mountains earlier this morning as the storm
system has exited the region, and both KDAX and KBBX radars have
been flipped back over into clear air mode. Warmer and drier
weather is favored for the rest of the week as high pressure
builds back in. Forecast highs are expected to be in the 60s to
70s in the Valley and foothills, and 50s to 70s in the mountains.
Forecast highs and lows will be trending above normal for late
February climatology. Patchy fog will be possible in the mornings
as well.

...Saturday - Tuesday...
Ensemble guidance indicates an upper level low approaching the
West Coast and moving into California this weekend into early next
week. This will bring along the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. The best chances are over the northern and central
Sacramento Valley and in the foothills and mountains. The latest
run of the National Blend of Models (NBM) shows roughly a 15-30%
chance of thunderstorms this weekend over those aforementioned
locations. Warmer than average temperatures are also favored to
continue over this timeframe with highs generally in the 60s to
70s in the Valley and foothills, and 50s to 70s in the mountains.
Dry weather then prevails across the area mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
General VFR conditions outside of MVFR ceilings in the northern
Sacramento Valley due to low clouds and mist. Winds will be light
across the area, with gusts to 15-20 kts at times over higher
terrain. Overnight, fog and low cloud development is possible in
the northern and central Sacramento Valley resulting in
MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions after 06Z Thursday. Low clouds and areas
of FG/BR are possible elsewhere in the Valley after 11Z Thursday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$