Morgantown, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

534
FXUS61 KPBZ 160538
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
138 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
There is the potential for strong to severe storms late tonight
into early tomorrow morning with a warm front. Severe storms
are also possible late Friday into Saturday ahead of passing
cold front. Probability of drier and cooler conditions increases
after Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:


- Mostly quiet conditions this afternoon/evening with a
  building ridge
- A passing warm front will return thunderstorms to the area
  overnight, some of which could be severe

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A few stray showers are noted northeast of Pittsburgh with a
passing shortwave near Lake Erie. However, convection is below
10kft and only poses an isolated lightning threat through 4pm.

To our west, a warm front is currently draped across southern
Ohio and central Indiana. Temperatures have jumped into the
upper-80s and mid-70s behind the warm front. A surge of moisture
is expected to advance late this evening as low-level winds
(950mb to 850mb) increase to 40kts.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany a warm
front after 10pm tonight, some of which could become strong to
severe. All threats are on the table, with noted dry air above
(DCAPE over 1000J/kg) and sufficient mid-level lapse rates
(+7.0C/km) to prompt strong downdrafts and large hail. Effective
low- level shear near 30kts and curved hodographs may also
promote rotating updrafts for tornadoes. There is a noted low-
level stable layer on model soundings. However, with ongoing
energy from an upstream mesoscale convection system (MCS),
severe storms will easily plow through that environment.

As for flooding, storm motion should be fast enough to avoid a
widespread flood threat, though heavy downpours will still be
likely, given PWATs near 1.50 inches. Any vulnerable locations
could still experience localized flooding issues (e.g., urban
and low-lying areas, and any locations that experienced flooding
from recent rains).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Storms likely ongoing early Friday with the passage of a warm
  front
- A break in severe storms expected between 10am and 5pm Friday;
  isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
- Severe storm potential increases with an approaching mesoscale
  convection system after 6pm Friday

----------------------------------------------------------------

Between midnight and 9am Friday, strong to severe storms are
expected to be passing through the region from west to east with
the remnants of convection initiated off the warm front (see
near term discussion).

By late Friday morning the environment will likely need some
time to recover, rebuild instability, to initiate organized
storms once again. However, a isolated storm can`t be ruled out
from lingering outflow boundaries.

High resolution model guidance has been consistent that by late
evening (between 6pm to 8pm) a mesoscale convection disturbance
will initiate to our west, just ahead of a cold front. The
disturbance will potentially track east into the Ohio River
Valley. Machine learning and sounding analogs support damaging
wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes with this new round of severe
weather Friday night into early Saturday. Over the last 12
hours, the Storm Prediction Centers has expanded the threat east
to support high resolution model trends. A large portion of the
region is now under a Slight Risk (2/5 on the severity scale
index). Probability of severe weather appears promising between
9pm and 2am Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday through Tuesday.
- Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with a new
  low
- Potential for heavy rain mid-week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Increasing mid-level subsidence and decreasing dew points in the
wake of the cold front Saturday afternoon will likely decrease
the potential for thunderstorms.

Models have been consistent that troughing over the Great Lakes
and northwest flow will keep temperatures seasonable Sunday
into Monday.

Probability of precipitation increases late Tuesday into
Wednesday with a new low ejecting out of the Rockies and
tracking east. A few model scenarios note a stationary boundary
straddling south of Pittsburgh with this passing low. If this
scenario plays out, heavy rain could pose a threat for portions
of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A shortwave trough will continue to track across the Upper Ohio
Valley region early this morning. Mid level capping has limited
the southern extent of a line of thunderstorms. It appears some
erosion to this cap is likely as the trough approaches, though
the southern extent of the line of storms remains in question.
Included IFR restrictions for FKL and DUJ, where the more
favorable conditions for convection exist.

A brief period of MVFR is possible after the passage of the wave
this morning, though VFR should quickly return by mid morning.
Scattered diurnal cu is expected to develop through the day.
With the thunderstorms not developing as far south as expected
early this morning, this will result in more destabilization
later today as another shortwave crosses the region. Added a
prob30 mention of thunder for most airports south of Rt 422,
though considerable uncertainty exists in this scenario.

Another round of thunderstorms, possibly an MCS, is expected to
cross the region late this evening with a crossing cold front.
Models differ on the northern extent of this potential, which
could also be impacted by any afternoon convection. Included a
prob30 for thunder for now until forecast details become more
clear.

Outlook...
Patchy restrictions in scattered showers are expected Saturday
and Saturday night under a crossing upper trough. VFR returns
Monday under high pressure. Restriction and rain potential
returns with a Tuesday warm front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM