Fairmont, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

523
FXUS61 KPBZ 160729
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
329 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
There is potential for strong to severe storms today and tonight
as a cold front approaches. Drier and cooler conditions return
Sunday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible today and
  tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
- Thunderstorms could become strong to severe and capable of
  producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A narrow mid-level shortwave ridge is passing over the area
ahead of an approaching surface warm front. This ridge was not
well resolved by convective-allowing models, resulting in
stronger mid-level subsidence than forecast which is helping to
suppress convective initiation south of the I-80/90 corridor in
Ohio. The last couple runs of hi-res models are finally
beginning to correctly initialize with this lack of storms and
as a result, are now showing a lesser coverage over the local
area through morning. The best chance for thunderstorms between
now and roughly 8am will be north of Pittsburgh and more so
north of I-80. There is certainly still some potential for
storms farther south to the I-70 corridor, but confidence there
is decreasing at this time. A special 06z PIT sounding shows a
weak capping inversion in place around 700mb (owing to the
aforementioned mid-level subsidence above that level), but
otherwise steep lapse rates, dry air aloft, and roughly 40 knots
of deep-layer shear are present and would support a severe
weather threat should any storms form.

Initial thinking was that the environment would need to recover
during late morning and early afternoon hours today in the wake
of the early morning round of storms. However, if less coverage
is in fact observed, this recovery may no longer be needed which
could shift the start time for the next expected round of
thunderstorms up a few hours to mid afternoon. This will need to
be monitored, as previous messaging was for storms to develop
after 6pm while some convective models are now showing
initiation as early as 2pm. The environment will remain potent
with ample instability and wind shear, supporting a severe
threat with any storms that form. All hazards would be possible,
including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.

The final round of thunderstorms is still expected to push
through during overnight hours tonight into Saturday morning.
Once again, there is newly added uncertainty to the timing and
intensity of that final round as that will depend on whether
thunderstorms form in the afternoon or not. If they do, the
environment could be worked over enough to lower the intensity
of overnight storms, whereas the opposite would hold true if
storms don`t form in the afternoon. This too will need to be
closely monitored.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A cold front crosses the area, ending thunderstorm activity
  and ushering cooler and drier weather into the region.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Showers and storms depart the area to the east on Saturday as a
cold front sweeps through the area, ushering in cooler and drier
weather under deep-layer northwesterly flow. Showers could
linger in the ridges through Saturday evening with weak upslope
occurring in the wake of the front, but by overnight hours that
activity too should wane, with temperatures then dropping into
the low to mid 50s by early Sunday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday through Tuesday.
- Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with
  another low pressure system
- Potential for heavy rain mid-week that warrants monitoring
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Models have been consistent that troughing over the Great Lakes
and northeast CONUS will maintain northwest flow over the local
area Sunday into Monday, keeping temperatures seasonable and the
weather dry through that time.

Probability of precipitation increases again late Tuesday into
Wednesday with a new low ejecting out of the Rockies and
tracking east across the Plains. A few model scenarios note a
stationary boundary straddling south of Pittsburgh with this
passing low. If that scenario plays out, heavy rain could pose
a threat for portions of the region around mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A shortwave trough will continue to track across the Upper Ohio
Valley region early this morning. Mid level capping has limited
the southern extent of a line of thunderstorms. It appears some
erosion to this cap is likely as the trough approaches, though
the southern extent of the line of storms remains in question.
Included IFR restrictions for FKL and DUJ, where the more
favorable conditions for convection exist.

A brief period of MVFR is possible after the passage of the wave
this morning, though VFR should quickly return by mid morning.
Scattered diurnal cu is expected to develop through the day.
With the thunderstorms not developing as far south as expected
early this morning, this will result in more destabilization
later today as another shortwave crosses the region. Added a
prob30 mention of thunder for most airports south of Rt 422,
though considerable uncertainty exists in this scenario.

Another round of thunderstorms, possibly an MCS, is expected to
cross the region late this evening with a crossing cold front.
Models differ on the northern extent of this potential, which
could also be impacted by any afternoon convection. Included a
prob30 for thunder for now until forecast details become more
clear.

Outlook...
Patchy restrictions in scattered showers are expected Saturday
and Saturday night under a crossing upper trough. VFR returns
Monday under high pressure. Restriction and rain potential
returns with a Tuesday warm front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
AVIATION...Shallenberger