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Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS66 KPQR 160434 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
933 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...A progressive weather pattern will bring periods of
light rain through the weekend, and possibly into early next
week. Expect temperatures to remain slightly below average
during this period. Light, steady rain expected as a weak front
moves across the area today. Rain showers increase late Friday night
through Saturday, along with a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Sat
afternoon. Lingering showers into Sunday, though most areas likely
drier. Temperatures trending warmer toward the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Thursday...Radar imagery shows light
rain spreading across the area this afternoon as a weak front pushes
onshore. Expect the cool, cloudy and damp conditions to persist
through this evening. Onshore flow will maintain light scattered
rain showers overnight into Friday, with the highest chances of rain
persisting along the northern coast and coast range through Friday.
Total rainfall amounts are generally expected around a tenth of an
inch or less, except 0.20-0.40 inch north of Astoria, including the
Willapa Hills. High temperatures warm into the mid-60s inland, upper
50s along the coast, on Friday, potentially warmer across southern
portions of the area (e.g. Lane County) where more sunshine is
possible as clouds scatter out.

The active pattern continues late Friday into Saturday as an upper
level jet over the north Pacific moves towards the Oregon coast. An
initial shortwave trough slides across western Oregon early Saturday
morning, initiating widespread rain showers. Northwest flow aloft is
maintained as the stronger system drops southward along the British
Columbia coast, digging into the Pacific Northwest. This will also
bring a slight chance (10-20%) of thunderstorms to the area for
Saturday afternoon/evening. Persistent showers will likely produce a
bit more substantial rainfall amounts, including a 30-50% chance of
exceeding 0.25 inch through Saturday night across much of the
forecast area. Showers will likely persist along the higher terrain,
including the Cascade foothills, where amounts closer to 0.50-1.00
inch of total (48-hr) rainfall are possible.

Most areas should expect conditions trending drier on Sunday, with
more sun breaks through the clouds by the afternoon. Temperatures
still remain on the cooler side with highs reaching the lower to mid-
60s inland. Models and their ensembles are coming into better
agreement that a weak front brings another round of light rain
across the region on Monday. Cluster analysis also showing more zonal
flow likely on Tuesday, keeping the door open for some light
showers. But still, uncertainty remains into the middle of next week
as about 60% of the clusters show some type of weak ridging. Still,
the NBM suggest temperatures are likely to trend closer to normal.
/DH

&&

.AVIATION...Radar and satellite imagery as of 04z Fri depicts the
latest frontal system moving east of the Cascades with widespread
rain now transitioning into post-frontal showers. Shower activity
will gradually decrease tonight, with most terminals becoming dry on
Friday. An exception would be the north Oregon coast (KAST), where
light showers are forecast to persist throughout the day with
predominately MVFR CIGs. Along the central Oregon coast and
Willamette Valley, expect mainly low-end VFR CIGs with intermittent
MVFR CIGs (25-45% chance). Friday evening, another front will return
rain and more widespread MVFR CIGs along the coast. Expect southerly
to southwesterly winds under 10 kt across all terminals through the
TAF period.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Low-end VFR CIGs with intermittent MVFR CIGs
through Friday morning (25-45% chance). After 21z Fri, expect
predominately VFR CIGs. Southerly winds around 5 kt or less.
                                                  -Alviz

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 5-7 ft at 10 seconds will continue to slowly
subside to 4-6 ft by early Friday morning. Northwest winds of less
than 10 kt will back out of the southwest to south through tonight,
increasing to 10-15 kt on Friday as a reinvigorated northwest swell
arrives ahead of a frontal system. South to southwest flow ahead of
the front will veer back out of the northwest in its wake, with a 25-
45% chance of gale-force gusts beyond 30 NM on Saturday, decreasing
to 5-20% on Sunday. 70-90% agreement in at least Small Craft Craft
winds during that time. Afterwards the next disturbance arrives
Monday, marking a return to southerly winds around 10-15 kts.
                                                    -Picard/JLiu

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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