Montpelier, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS61 KBTV 160541
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daytime showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase in
extent each day as a series of troughs swing through while we
remain warmer and more humid than normal. The greatest potential
for precipitation will be late Friday and again on Saturday
afternoon, with cooler conditions arriving on Sunday that will
linger into the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 126 AM EDT Friday...Only a few minor adjustments needed to
the forecast with this update. Patchy mist and fog have begun to
develop across the region, with some areas of reduced visibilities.
Temperatures continue to remain mild, with most locations in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Previous Discussion...Mainly pinprick showers have developed
along lines of HREF guidance. A larger cluster has formed over
Rutland County and has anchored to terrain with limited motion.
About 2/3rds of an inch have fallen over various sites around
the storms, but where there has likely been the most over Clark
and Bird Mountains where radar is estimating 1.25" has fallen,
there are no sites to provide ground truth, unfortunately. With
shear only around 10, no synoptic forcing, and poor lapse rates,
any storms will remain garden variety with erratic motions that
could result in additional precipitation bulls-eyes. Activity
will diminish slowly tonight. There`s still some elevated
instability lingering. However, there`s no mid- level warm
advection or increasing southerly flow. Convective activity
could sporadically increase at times overnight, but the trend
will be decreasing coverage. Unfortunately, another humid night
in the mid 50s to mid 60s is expected.

Friday continues to appear more active with better convective
parameters across the board with upper 70s to lower 80s and 60s
dewpoints. Another trough will provide marginal synoptic
forcing. Forecast skew-Ts still suggest tall, skinny CAPE
profiles with low shear across the region. It will take until
mid-afternoon for the region to destabilize. So the best chances
for showers and storms will be in our climatological 1-10 PM
window. Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be
the main concern for Friday. The trough will depart after
midnight, but increasing warm advection behind it and present of
a nocturnal LLJ may allow for a few pinprick showers or storms
to linger overnight. Little change to warmth and humidity will
keep overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s another night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...An upper level low slowly makes its
way into the region over the weekend, pushing through a few
fronts/troughs on Saturday. There look to be broken rounds of
showers and thunderstorms associated with these features, with
some gaps in between. The first round should move into northern
New York in the early morning and Vermont in the late morning.
It does not look like a significant amount of instability will
develop before this round comes through, so any storms should be
under severe levels. There looks to be at least a partial gap
in the afternoon before another broken line comes through later
in the day. Adequate shear should be in place, but it will be
relatively weakly forced and there are questions on how much
instability will develop. If adequate clearing can occur between
the lines, there is a low severe chance for the second line,
and the SPC has therefore placed the region in the Marginal
risk. East of the Greens, southeast flow will keep a cooler
marine modified airmass in place and may prevent any
thunderstorms from forming at all. There will be favorable
conditions for heavy rain with any storms that develop, though
there looks to be decent storm motion so any consistently
training looks unlikely. However, the threat of flash flooding
cannot be completely ruled out. As the low passes overhead and
to the east, moist northwest flow develops on the backside for
Sunday. There will be upslope showers throughout much of the
day. Temperatures will also be much cooler, with highs in the
50s and low 60s for most places. The low looks to slow down once
it moves off the coast so these showers may continue into
Monday, especially across eastern areas. Conditions will still
be too warm for snow at any of the high peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...A much cooler pattern will continue
for next week as northerly cyclonic flow looks to dominate. A
few showers are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple
weak shortwaves look to pivot around the upper low to the east,
but it should remain mostly dry. A slow moving nor`easter will
make a run at the region for mid and late week, and while its
exact track and speed are still uncertain, there is again the
potential for an extended period of steady rain. Temperatures
may be cold enough during it that the highest peaks see a little
bit of snow. If the wetter solutions verify, highs may be in
the 50s for most areas. Even if this surface low misses to the
east, there will be a cold upper level low on the western side
so there will likely be some afternoon showers regardless. The
cooler and unsettled weather looks to continue into the weekend,
though it will likely not be a consistent steady rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z SATURDAY...VFR conditions are currently prevailing
across the region at this hour, with calm or light terrain-
driven winds. Despite the VFR conditions, patchy mist and fog
developing across the region will bring some reduced
visibilities, which continue through about 12Z with conditions
rapidly improving after sunrise. Given the patchiness of the fog
and uncertainty in persistence, TEMPO groups were utilized in
the forecast. Once the fog dissipates towards 12Z, VFR
conditions should prevail once again. Shower activity will
increase throughout the afternoon, with some possible embedded
thunderstorms, with some heavier showers possibly bringing
reduced flight conditions at times. Winds will generally be
southerly between 5 and 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Kremer