Dallas, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

461
FXUS64 KFWD 160533
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1233 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms (30-50% chance) are expected this
  afternoon and evening roughly along and east of I-35. Some
  thunderstorms could become severe with primarily a large hail
  threat.

- Scattered storms (40-60% chance) will be possible each afternoon
  and evening Saturday through Monday. A few storms may be severe
  (5-15% chance).

- Above normal temperatures will continue through next week, with
  daily highs largely remaining in the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

An active couple of days lie ahead with a dryline and quasi-
stationary front resulting in a few rounds of strong/severe
thunderstorms heading into the weekend.

Stark thermodynamic contrast exists on either side of a nearly
stationary surface front draped SW-NE through the forecast area
early this morning, with dewpoints in the 50s on the northern
side of the boundary and as high as the mid 70s within the
warm sector airmass to the south. This front is associated with a
Northern Plains and Great Lakes low pressure system, and
therefore will have little/no encouragement to make significant
headway out of the forecast area during the next ~36 hours. It
should pivot slightly northwestward during the daytime today,
before resulting in isolated convective initiation mainly along
and east of I-35 by mid-afternoon. Since upper-level forcing is
largely absent, thunderstorm development would be the result of
convergence along the boundary amid extreme instability and steep
mid-level lapse rates, and this would likely only offer isolated
convective coverage. That being said, any thunderstorms would
easily be able to become severe in the presence of 4000-5000
SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell
structures. Large hail will be the primary threat, with damaging
winds being a secondary hazard. While tornado potential is never
zero when surface-based supercells exist, this potential is on the
low side today due to rather straight hodographs and weak low-
level flow/shear which will greatly limit helicity in the lowest 1
km. The severe threat should be maximized roughly from the DFW
Metroplex east and south between 3-8 PM before convective
intensity wanes after nightfall. There is also a small-
probability scenario where no convection is able to develop due to
capping this afternoon, although the odds of a null event for our
CWA today appear rather slim.

Additional severe convection is expected on Saturday, although
most/all of the CWA will be at risk as the boundary should lift
northward into southern Oklahoma in the morning. It`s slight
northward retreat will be due to increased southerly low-level
flow in the presence of a compact shortwave traversing
southwesterly mid-level flow through New Mexico and the TX
Panhandle. This will open the entire forecast area to 70+
dewpoints and extreme instability, and the additional ascent from
the shortwave`s arrival should ignite greater coverage of
convection by late Saturday morning or early afternoon. The
higher coverage and faster upscale growth will probably cause
threats to transition primarily to damaging winds rather quickly,
but lower hail/tornado threats will certainly accompany all
surface-based storms through Saturday afternoon as convection
transits the area to the east. Storms are likely to last into the
evening before diminishing overnight.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1242 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025/
/Friday Night into Next Week/

Any leftover activity from Friday evening will quickly weaken and
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. A warm and humid
airmass will be left behind in their wake, which will help to
contribute to the next round of thunderstorm activity on Saturday.
A shortwave trough will quickly eject out of the Desert Southwest
amid zonal flow aloft, racing toward the Central Plains through
Saturday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will be quite
destabilized with surface based CAPE values upwards of 4,000-4,500
J/kg with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Strong capping
is expected initially on Saturday morning, but this will likely
erode quickly as forcing for ascent increases with the shortwave
passing by to our north. The dry line will also be in place,
serving as an additional focus for thunderstorm development
through the early to late afternoon hours on Saturday. The severe
threat appears to be greatest through this timeframe, with large
hail and damaging winds being the main threats. There is a low but
non-zero tornado threat as well which will be worth watching.
Once again, all activity will wind down through the late evening
and overnight as the shortwave departs from the region. The best
placement for the activity on Saturday will be along and east of
the I-35 corridor and upwards toward the Red River. A similar
pattern will continue through Sunday with another round of severe
weather expected across portions of North and Central Texas. The
main threats once again will be large hail and damaging winds,
with a low tornado threat too. Storm mode through the weekend will
favor discrete supercells to small clusters which will attempt to
move off of the dry line each afternoon and evening. Stay weather
aware this weekend!

A period of active weather appears to continue through the start
of next week with a couple more days of dry line activity possible
on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. There is a bit more
uncertainty regarding this activity but the severe weather threat
looks to continue for at least a couple more days. Above normal
temperatures will also continue with highs in the 80s and 90s
through much of next week and even into next weekend.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Winds are light and variable at the TAF sites as of 06z, but
should return to southeasterly in the next few hours as a stalled
frontal boundary pivots back to the northwest. This will also
open the door for a brief MVFR stratus intrusion this morning, and
these cigs should spread into Waco around or after 09z and into
the Metroplex TAF sites closer to 12z. Lifting and scattering to
VFR will occur by late morning, while winds veer increasingly
southwesterly or westerly heading into the afternoon. Attention
will then turn to convective chances, with initiation of isolated
storms within D10 possible after ~20z. This could result in a few
hours of TSRA impacts to any of the TAF sites due to thunderstorm
activity immediately at the airports, or at least within the
vicinity. Confidence in coverage and placement of storms is still
too low to warrant a Tempo TSRA in the TAFs at this time.
Convective chances will end this evening with VFR and light
southeasterly winds resuming.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested along and east of I-35 this
afternoon. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  91  73  90  72 /   5  30   5  70  40
Waco                74  94  74  92  72 /  10  30  40  30  20
Paris               72  88  66  87  69 /  20  30  10  60  50
Denton              66  91  68  90  69 /   5  20   0  70  40
McKinney            68  90  70  89  69 /   5  30   5  70  40
Dallas              72  93  72  91  72 /   5  30   5  70  40
Terrell             75  91  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  60  40
Corsicana           73  92  74  92  73 /  10  30  40  40  30
Temple              72  95  73  94  72 /   5  10  30  20  20
Mineral Wells       62  93  68  92  69 /   5  20   0  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$