Jackson, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

276
FXUS64 KMEG 160501
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1201 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

- There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  overnight.

- The northern half of the region is in an Enhanced (3 out of 5)
  Risk alongside a Moderate (4 out of 5) Risk within our far
  northern counties for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist from Saturday
  through the middle of next week with another chance for severe
  storms Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Generally dry across the Mid-South this evening, with a few
showers just to our west. CAMs continue to struggle with the
evolution of the system overnight, which could bring another round
of strong to severe thunderstorms. Looking at the environment, we
do remain fairly capped. This cap held up earlier in the day with
storms that moved into the area, so do question if it will be able
to erode at all as another push of storms moves into the area.
Still looks like those generally along and north of the I-40
corridor would have the best chance of seeing anything go severe,
mainly after midnight until around sunrise. If storms do develop
and are able to break the cap, there would not be much to stop
them thereafter with all storm modes on the table. Remainder of
the forecast remains on track, with another, and likely more
impactful, round tomorrow (Friday) evening.

CMA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Warm weather continues today underneath upper ridging with highs
in the upper 80s that will last through tomorrow. High moisture
still resides throughout the region with incredible instability
within an increasingly sheared environment. Storms have already
begun to fire in W AR, which is contrary to what much of this
mornings` CAM guidance suggested. Forecast soundings, although
potentially now unreliable, retain a stout EML below 700 mb
throughout the region which could prevent a more significant
severe threat. Regardless, DCAPE above 500 J/kg and mid-level
lapse rates above 8 C/km alongside 40+ knots of bulk shear will
allow for organized bowing line segments and hail. KNQA and KLZK
radar observation support this with storms expected to move
through NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and NW TN this evening. Because of
the EML and weak forcing, development further south is unlikely
at this time, but will be monitored over the coming hours. Storms
will likely diminish in strength after 00z as capping increases.

Given the current trends this afternoon, thunderstorm activity
tonight is growing more uncertain. However, CAM guidance has
stubbornly held on to the idea of convection after 06z as the LLJ
intensifies alongside continued upper height falls. The effects
of this afternoon convection are likely to reduce some
instability from portions of the region, but unaffected areas
could see more development tonight. Forecast soundings depict a
similar environment to this afternoon with high MUCAPE/Shear that
would suggest a severe hail and damaging wind threat lasting
through tomorrow morning. Again, this is a very uncertain
forecast that could evolve in as little as a few hours but
confidence is increasing in severe thunderstorms tonight.

By tomorrow morning, the upper low that has been dominating this
weeks weather will be parked over the Great Lakes. To its south, a
seasonably strong jet streak is forecast to form over the Ohio
River Valley granting strong shear across the entire region.
Continued southerly advection is expected to overcome any
modification of surface moisture that occurs tonight. By early
afternoon short range and CAM guidance paints 3000+ MLCAPE over
much of the region. Any capping is likely to be overcome as
temperatures swell into the upper 80s with the potential for
storms beginning as early as 2 PM with storms forming along and
ahead of a cold front. Forecast soundings display relatively
straight hodographs, which would favor splitting supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging winds early on. Later in
the evening, hodograph curvature begins to increase that indicates
higher tornado potential near and after sunset, especially with
any discrete storms. Additionally, the potential for outflow
boundaries and areas of enhanced SRH exists from tonight`s
convection. Storm coverage remains uncertain still with the
potential for a mix of supercells and bowing line segments both
along and ahead of the surface cold front.

Storms will continue well into the overnight hours, but increasing
capping is expected to reduce the severity of any remaining
convection with time. The cold front will advance into N MS
Saturday and stall as the upper jet lifts to our east. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are possible around the quasi-stationary
boundary Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall totals through Sunday
currently sit between 1-2" with locally heavier amounts likely.

Going into next week, medium range guidance progs a new trough
ejection in the Central Plains. The stationary boundary will then
lift north, allowing for more warm, tropical weather by mid-week.
Diurnal showers and storms are possible Monday afternoon. Another
severe threat appears possible on Tuesday as the system makes its
way through the Midsouth, but model discrepancies with respect to
previous days` convection reduces confidence in what hazards will
occur at this time. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in
good agreement that a northwesterly upper pattern will take hold
after Tuesday. Therefore, temperatures are expected to cool off to
end the period with dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Nailing down the timing of each window of precip is quite
difficult this period as CAMs have been handling the initiation
quite poorly thus far. Given the northward trend of overnight
convection through 12Z, opted to make some pretty drastic changes
to MEM and MKL`s precip for the next several hours. The vast
majority of the day looks completely dry for most areas. Main
show looks to be Friday night after 00Z, and will likely also
pack a punch with gusty winds as the convection materializes along
a very strong cold front. In terms of ceilings, don`t think there
will be more than a few hours of MVFR this (Fri) morning,
otherwise VFR looks to prevail for all sites. Gusty non-
thunderstorm winds from the SW will also prevail for the majority
of the day into the evening tomorrow, finally diminishing
overnight into Saturday.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD