Columbia, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXUS64 KOHX 160524
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1224 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight
  in northwest portions of Middle Tennessee. Strong winds and
  large hail are the primary threats.

- A dynamic weather system will bring the potential for all modes
  of severe weather to Middle Tennessee Friday evening through the
  overnight hours into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds
  are the main concern.

- Unsettled weather continues next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A surface and upper ridge are situated to our east, giving us a
southwest flow aloft while at the surface, a trough of low
pressure is situated to our immediate north and west. However,
there is a dearth of activity over Middle Tennessee this evening
owing to an unusually strong trapping inversion. It is expected
that the inversion will erode somewhat -- but probably not
entirely -- as the 00Z HRRR brings a cluster of storms into
northwest Middle Tennessee toward morning. However, the best
chance for convection is going to be late tomorrow, tomorrow
evening, then into the overnight hours across our eastern zones.
The aforementioned surface boundary looks to clear the mid state
entirely by 09Z Saturday morning. In the meantime, the
environment by tomorrow afternoon is likely to be highly unstable,
with large CAPE values, very steep mid-level lapse rates and
plenty of available moisture. There does look to be some low-level
wind shear, but tornadoes are of a lesser concern than damaging
straight-line winds and large hail owing to a unidirectional
profile.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Although the severe potential will be greatly reduced after
tomorrow night, low to medium rain and storm chances will stay
with us through the weekend and into the middle of next week
before a cold front on Wednesday brings us drier, cooler air for a
nice change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

TAF sites will be VFR through the morning hours, when TSRA become
a concern and could drop sites into MVFR periodically. Winds will
be gusty tomorrow around 20 knots, but could be higher in
thunderstorms. TSRA will become widespread after around 20z, as
a line of storms moves from NW to SE across middle Tennessee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  70  87  65 /  60  90  10  20
Clarksville    85  67  84  62 /  80  80   0  20
Crossville     84  63  81  59 /  50  90   0  10
Columbia       86  67  87  64 /  40  90  10  30
Cookeville     83  65  82  61 /  60  90   0  10
Jamestown      84  63  81  58 /  70  90   0  10
Lawrenceburg   85  66  86  64 /  30  90  10  20
Murfreesboro   86  67  87  64 /  40  90   0  20
Waverly        84  65  84  63 /  70  90  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Holley