Broken Arrow, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

942
FXUS64 KTSA 160524
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

  - Showers and thunderstorms chances expected for southeast OK /
    northwest AR through the early evening.

  - An unsettled weather pattern continues through the weekend and
    into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are expected at
    times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 938 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Stalled frontal boundary lies across extreme SE OK northeastward
through western AR. Persistent warm advection atop this boundary
has maintained light showers and isolated thunderstorms which is
likely to persist into the overnight hours. A few members of short
term guidance solutions have offered a scenario with isolated
strong storms developing overnight in vicinity of the boundary.
While coverage would likely be low, ample elevated instability and
effective shear is present to support this risk. Otherwise, expect
the boundary to begin lifting northward late tonight and be a
focus for possible storms developing across NE OK into NW AR by
mid to late morning Friday. The overnight forecast is in good
shape and only minor adjustments made primarily to incorporate
observed trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Low level winds will reverse to southerly Saturday morning with
moisture quickly moving northwards again. However, another boundary
will quickly begin sweeping it back to the east by mid morning. A
few storms may develop along or ahead of this boundary in northwest
AR. Any storms that do form may become severe with plenty of
instability, moisture, and shear present. However, CAMs have not
been too excited for our area given robust mid level capping and
the fact that the initiating feature isn`t all that strong. This
should keep the best severe probabilities east, but confidence
isn`t particularly high either, and it wouldn`t be surprising if
storms did form a bit further west. CAMs then show another round
of storms along the boundary in the late afternoon or evening, but
these will probably be either right on the edge of the area or
south/east. It`ll be another warm day, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.

One more boundary moves through Saturday morning, after which deep
moisture will spread over the entire area. There is no point in
getting too specific on details later Saturday through Tuesday as
confidence is low on when exact features will move through, and
details will be dependent on what happens the day before. With
that said, the general pattern will be one of good ascent due to a
favorable jet and incoming upper level low. We will have
sustained low level warm and moist advection. Therefore, several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely. Given the time of
year and general favorable thermodynamics, severe thunderstorms
are expected at times, with potentially all hazards. Stay tuned,
as things may get pretty busy.

By Tuesday the main storm system will eject across the area,
with cooler and drier air moving in behind it. High temperatures
will drop and humidity will diminish for a few days. Low
temperatures may even return to the 40s for the cool spots by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Largely quiet with VFR conditions prevailing thru the night.
There`s a low chance for an isolated shower or storm near KFSM
over the next couple of hours, so have inserted prob30 mention
there. A period of MVFR cigs in the low lvl moisture return is
expected from SE OK into NW AR btwn 12 and 18Z. In addition, the
latest CAMs suggest that some elevated storms could develop during
this time across far NW AR. The going forecast had this covered
with a prob30 mention and have elected to go with tempo mention
given good model run-to-run consistency. VFR conditions and
clearing skies will prevail aft 18Z. Gusty SW to W winds by mid-
morning Friday will gradually become WNW by late in the day and
subside.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  57  84  65 /  10   0  20  40
FSM   89  62  88  68 /  30  10  20  50
MLC   87  61  88  67 /  10  10  30  40
BVO   86  52  81  60 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   84  57  85  63 /  30   0  20  50
BYV   84  58  84  62 /  30   0  20  50
MKO   86  58  85  64 /  20   0  20  40
MIO   84  54  81  61 /  20   0  10  60
F10   87  59  86  65 /  10   0  20  30
HHW   88  64  87  67 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30