Mason, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

745
FXUS61 KILN 160146
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
946 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the Ohio
Valley through mid week, bringing occasional chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak mid level shortwave passing east of the region along with loss
of heating has led to a decrease in coverage and intensity of
convection. A few lingering showers over the southeast will come to
end by midnight. With abundant low level moisture expect to see low
clouds and some patchy fog development overnight.

Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s northwest to the upper
60s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level trough will move slowly out of the Mid Mississippi
Valley Monday and into the lower Ohio Valley Monday night. Some mid
level energy ejecting northeast out of this will combine with some
afternoon instability through the day on Monday to result in a
developing chance of showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Highs on Monday will mostly be in the lower 80s.

Pcpn chances will continue into early Monday evening but will likely
begin to decrease somewhat in coverage and intensity as we lose the
daytime heating. However, additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms will spread back in from the southwest later Monday
night ahead of the mid level trough. Lows Monday night will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid level shortwave continues to move through the larger flow at
the start of the extended period. Right now, it appears that this
wave will be moving though the CWA on Tuesday, allowing for brief
dry weather for east central IN/ west central OH/ west KY. However,
there still may be enough forcing on the eastern side of this wave
to spark showers and thunderstorms in central OH/KY on east Tuesday
afternoon. Guidance shows a subtle enhancement in wind speeds on the
eastern side of the shortwave- not quite a jet streak- but perhaps
enough to allow a little more organization to storms. This appears
to be focused closer to the OH/WV border, but may be something to
watch should it shift farther west. High moisture content means that
Tuesday remains muggy: Tds in the low 70s and Ts in the low 80s and
locally heavy rainfall remains a threat with any
showers/storms. Overnight lows only fall to the low 70s.

By Wednesday, yet another shortwave to our west will be organizing
and moving into the Ohio Valley. This wave will be the driver for an
additional influx of moisture and warmth into the region. Wednesday
should be the warmest day of the week, with feels-like temps
creeping into the 90s in spots as we enter into the open-warm sector
of the surface low. Showers and thunderstorms will fire off ahead of
the cold front as it is dragged through, though timing on this
remains a bit ambiguous. Both ECMWF and GFS ensembles have slowed
things down a tad, however, placement of the low over the Great
Lakes varies. Either way, looks like trends are indicating cold
frontal passage either late Wednesday night or possibly into
Thursday. Depending on timing and diurnal factors, this may inhibit
severe potential for our area and keep severe west of us on
Wednesday and east of us on Thursday. We`ll see.

In the post- frontal regime sometime on Thursday, we should briefly
dry out and maybe even see some sunshine. However, the airmass
behind this "cold" front isn`t exactly cold. Ts and Tds on Thursday
and Friday are maybe only 5 degrees cooler than Wednesday. In fact,
large scale ridging looks to be setting up as we head toward the
weekend, bringing even hotter conditions to the region, though
potentially drier.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level shortwave exiting the area and loss of daytime heating will
result in decreasing chances for showers/thunderstorms with dry
conditions by late evening. Lingering low level moisture will likely
lead to MVFR to IFR cigs and possibly some MVFR vsbys developing
again late tonight into early Monday morning. Cigs will lift back
into MVFR and then VFR toward the end of the TAF period. Another
mid level disturbance will result in a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Timing and coverage somewhat
uncertain - so have limited any mention to prob30 late in the period
across the southwest, where the best chance looks to exist.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through Thursday with periods of MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings and visibilities.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR