Leland, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS62 KILM 160736
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
336 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures, with near record highs possible,
are expected through Sat. A weak cold front accompanied with
isolated convection at best will track across to south of the
area late Saturday night. Dry weather and near normal temps to
carry on thru Wed, however by the mid-week period of next week,
the next storm system may affect the FA with unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Somewhat deep west to northwest (early) flow will remain in
place across the area today. Near record to record highs are
expected for afternoon highs with only Florence (95
forecast...record 93) at least at this point explicitly in
record territory. The next candidate to break a record is
Lumberton (94 forecast...record 96) as the coastal areas may see
a race between the resultant sea breeze which will be decent as
the westerly flow isn`t the strongest I have seen and the
warmth. For tonight into Saturday morning expect warm and dry
conditions to continue with lows in the lower to perhaps only
middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Breezy conditions slated for Sat as a sfc trof across the
central Carolinas gets displaced by a sfc cold front driving
ESE. This aided by an upper low over the Great Lakes and
associated upper trof axis extending south of it, all pushing to
the East. By Sun daybreak the upper low will be over the NE
States with its trof axis extending south across the area. This
will help drive a cold front across the FA likely sat aftn and
night. It`ll likely stall just south of the FA as it becomes
aligned parallel with the flow aloft. Models do scour a good
chunk of moisture after crossing the Appalachians leaving mainly
clouds associated with its passage. Eventhough POPS will be 20%
at best, the isolated convection that does develop will
immediately have the potential to go severe given the avbl
instability and shear. Max temps in the 90s Sat will have the
potential to reach record levels across a few of our climatic
sites. Later Sun thru Sun night, building upper ridge axis along
the MIssissippi River Valley and the upper trof axis off the SE
STates Coast will result in NW flow aloft. Could see an
embedded vort within this NW flow push across the FA Sun aftn
resulting in a possibility of raising POPs across the FA. Not
entirely bought on this given previous model runs kept it south
of the FA. Sun max temps a few degrees cooler than Sat maxes.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The FA will be more under the influence of the upper ridging
across the Central U.S. with the upper trof axis remaining
well offshore from the FA. NW flow aloft will continue Mon thru
Tue with yet another embedded vort s/w trof that possibly drops
across the FA within NW flow. Once again, confidence remains low
given the back and forth progged movement/strength of this
feature. Nevertheless, a reflection of it will be the cloudiness
being invoked into the fcst. Late Tue into Wed the upper ridge
axis pushes off the SE States Coast followed by a
sharpening/amplifying upper trof across the Eastern 1/3rd of the
U.S. This has been advertised by models, however the remain
wishy-washy with any Pop threat. At this point will cap Pops in
the low to possibly modest chance during the mid-week period.
Temps this period will start above normal then drop back to near
or below normal depending how much of that Canadian airmass
infiltrates the FA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, as a
building mid-level ridge keeps convection suppressed.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Southwest winds which have probably reached
their peak just north of 15 knots will continue today in a
range of 10-15 knots. Speeds will diminish slightly tonight
before the low level jetting once again sees an uptick.
Significant seas will see a narrow range of 3-4 feet today
dropping in a subtle nature to 2-4 feet later tonight into
Saturday AM.

Saturday through Tuesday Night...Tightened sfc pg will be
ongoing to start Sat off. Inland sfc trof will be replaced by a
SE-ward dropping cold front Sat aftn. This front should push
off the mainland and thru the local waters mainly Sat night.
Could see tstorm activity spring up after pushing off the
coasts, as it interacts with the Gulf Stream. Winds Sat into
Sat night will flirt with SCA 25+ kt wind gusts. The sfc pg will
relax after FROPA and remain-so thru Mon night, resulting in
reduced wind speeds to aob 10 kt. Wind directions will be the
problem child during this period. By Tue, some organization of
the pressure field as well as some tightening of the gradient.
Seas start at 2-4 ft with 5 footers possible. Mainly looking at
wind driven waves at 5 or less second periods becoming dominant
with an underlying small but identifiable SE swell at 8+ second
periods.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature records may be challenged Friday and Saturday
as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of a cold
front. Record highs for our four climate sites are as follows:

For Friday, May 16th...
Wilmington, NC:      94F (1915)
Lumberton, NC:       96F (1962, 1941)
Florence, SC:        93F (2022)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 91F (1941)

Saturday, May 17th...
Wilmington, NC:      92F (1960, 1990)
Lumberton, NC:       96F (1941)
Florence, SC:        93F (1977)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941)

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...DCH/SHK
CLIMATE...ABW/DCH