Gastonia, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS62 KGSP 160658
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
258 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm high pressure remains over the area through today. A cold front
approaches from the northwest and may bring a line of showers and
thunderstorms to the North Carolina mountains late tonight into
early Saturday. The front will become stationary over our region
into early next week as the next storm system organizes over the
plain states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Low chance for thunderstorms across the mountains this afternoon.

2) A line of thunderstorms could impact the mountains late tonight,
with the threat decreasing eastward.

3) Very warm daytime temperatures approaching the low 90s today.

As of 145 AM EST Friday: Severe weather season is in full swing
across the CONUS, including the south. Synoptically, a ridge axis
continues to translate eastward as a trough strengthens out west. By
this afternoon and evening, the ridge starts to flatten into
Saturday and brings a couple rounds of shower and thunderstorm
chances to the area. The first is Friday afternoon as a wave of DPVA
crosses to the north of the CWA. This doesn`t look as robust as
previously seen on CAMs. Modeled soundings keep a stout cap in
place, especially east of the mountains, keeping the elevated CAPE
untapped. However, the cap erodes more over the mountains, however,
the better forcing may pass just to the north of the CWA. Since the
ingredients are not lining up well for this situation, the
confidence is low for thunderstorm activity this afternoon. The
second chance for thunderstorms comes as a potential line of
decaying convection leftover from the TN/KY area late tonight and
into Saturday morning. At this point, modeled soundings are not too
favorable with supporting the survival of this line much past the
mountains. There is a strong cap in place east of the mountains that
could hinder the line. There appears to be plenty of bulk shear, 40-
60kts and elevated instability, but how it survives the mountains is
to be seen. Though given the history of a MCS making a run for the
CWA, it`s likely to weaken. CAM guidance is not as impressive as
previous runs either, continuing to reduce confidence in how the
environment could support the line of storms. The Storm Prediction
Center keeps a narrow slight risk for the TN/NC border for today,
before tapering off to a marginal/general threat east of the TN/NC
line. Timing appears to be well after midnight tonight and into the
early hours of Saturday morning. Once this threat has dissipated,
the remainder of Saturday appears to be much calmer. Expect very
warm daytime highs today and Saturday and overnight temps remaining
in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry Weather Returns Briefly Saturday Evening into Saturday Night

2) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Return Sunday Across the Western
Zones with Better Coverage Expected on Monday

3) Above Normal Temperatures Stick Around

Quasi-zonal flow will be in place aloft Saturday evening into Sunday
before weak upper ridging builds over the region Sunday evening into
late Monday. Upper shortwaves will track over the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia on Sunday and again on Monday. At the sfc, a
cold front will be just south of the forecast area Saturday evening
before reactivating as a warm front and lifting north across the
southern half of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning.
The front will then stall across the southern half of the forecast
area Monday into Monday night.

Although brief drying returns Saturday evening into Saturday night
behind the cold front, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
return for the rest of the short term. The western zones will have
the best chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday so
have chance (15% to 40%) PoPs across these zones with dry conditions
continuing across the eastern zones. Global models generally agree
that coverage will be better area-wide on Monday so have higher PoPs
and thunder chances in place. Activity may decrease in coverage as
it pushes east of the mountains so went with high-end chance to low-
end likely (40% to 60%) PoPs across the western zones and low-end
chance (15% to 30%) PoPs across the eastern zones. Have the highest
thunder chances (30% to 50%) along and north of I-85 as convection
may weaken as it pushes eastward. Shower and thunderstorms may
linger across the western zones Monday evening into Monday night so
maintained slight chance PoPs (15% to 24%) during this timeframe.
Cannot rule out some strong to severe storms each afternoon/early
evening as there will be plenty of deep layer shear to work with
each day, ~40-50 kts, but confidence is low as guidance is not in
agreement regarding the amount of or placement of instability each
day. Highs each afternoon will end up ~4-7 degrees above normal with
lows each night ending up ~8-12 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue through the Long Term
with the Best Coverage Currently Expected on Wednesday

2) Above Normal Highs Linger through Tuesday Before Cooler and Below
Normal Highs Return Wednesday into Thursday

Weak upper ridging remains in place over the region through Tuesday
before an upper low tracks out of the west Tuesday night into
Wednesday, approaching the area on Thursday. Timing/location
differences remain between the global models regarding the upper low
so confidence on shower and thunderstorm chances/timing will be low
throughout much of the forecast period. At the sfc, the
aforementioned front in the short term will remain stalled over the
southern half of the forecast area on Tuesday before lifting north
across the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The sfc low
pressure system associated with the upper low will approach out of
the west on Wednesday before tracking across the forecast area late
Wednesday into early Thursday.

With the front stalled over the forecast area on Tuesday, another
round of showers and thunderstorms are possible. However, models are
not in great agreement regrading the coverage of activity on Tuesday
so capped PoPs to chance (50% or less) area-wide. Better coverage of
showers and thunderstorms arrives on Wednesday and may linger into
Thursday. However, guidance is not in agreement on when moisture
associated with the low pressure system will push out of the
forecast area. The latest GFS shows precip pushing east overnight
Wednesday into daybreak Thursday while the latest Canadian and ECMWF
hang on to precip through the day Thursday. The Canadian keeps
precip in place area-wide on Thursday while the ECMWF only keeps
precip around across the northern half of the area. Thus, have the
highest PoPs (50% to 70%) on Wednesday with PoPs on Thursday capped
to chance (45% or less) across the northern zones. Strong to severe
storms will be possible on both Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the
low pressure system thanks to 40-60 kts of deep layer shear in place
and 1,200-1,800 J/kg of SBCAPE developing each afternoon/early
evening. However, models all seem to be in agreement that severe
weather is looking unlikely on Thursday thanks to more stable
conditions developing behind the low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period
at all terminals. No vsby/cig restrictions expected. Winds remain
light to calm through daybreak and southerly, with KAVL remaining
N/NW before turning S after 12z. Low end gusts could develop at a
terminals east of the mountains after 00z, but confidence is low.
There is a chance for some LLWS at KAVL between 12z-14z. There is a
PROB30 at KAVL/KHKY for TSRA. The confidence is not there to keep
the PROB30 going for Friday afternoon at KAVL, but it will remain at
KHKY. A more robust line of TSRA could affect KAVL, hence the PROB30
toward the end of the period.

Outlook: Active pattern of thunderstorm activity continues during
the weekend and into next week, bringing possible temporary
restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CP