Rye, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

737
FXUS61 KOKX 110613
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
213 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through this evening followed by weak high
pressure building in across the area for the rest of tonight
through midweek into Thursday. Another cold front passes through
Thursday night into early Friday and then becomes nearly
stationary near the region into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A cold front was moving slowly through the region, and at 02Z
was moving through NYC. Showers ahead of the front have just
about completely dissipated as the line moved into a more
stable environment.

Some residual fog is possible tonight as winds remain light and
ample BL moisture from preceding rain may be difficult to scour
out until tomorrow morning. Lows tonight will be in the upper
50s to the middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Skies will be generally clearing behind the departing cold
front to the east by Wednesday morning. Upper level flow should
become more zonal as the trough begins to pull out of the area.
This should allow for heights to rise and surface high pressure
to build into the area. A light westerly wind with ample
sunshine will allow for a fairly dramatic rise in temperatures
for much of the area. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s
everywhere with the warmest spots near the NYC metro rising into
the upper 80s. A drop in dew points should allow heat index
values to remain close to the air temperature.

High pressure continues to build into the area by Wednesday
night allowing for generally light W/SW flow through the night.
Temperatures will remain fairly warm with low temperatures
across the area in the middle 60s with the NYC metro possibly
not dropping out of the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain over there region Thursday with
mostly dry conditions during the daytime. It will be the warmest day
of the week with temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s. Can not rule
out a few mid 90s across the NYC/NJ Metro areas.

A cold front is forecast to move through the region late Thursday
night into early Friday morning, and then become nearly stationary
to the south of the area, through the Mid Atlantic region and the
Delmarva, into early next week. The front may set off a few showers
and thunderstorms as it moves across the region. Will carry just
some slight chance POPs for now.

Aloft, a mid and upper level trough, will remain across eastern
Canada, and into Northern New England, with a nearly zonal flow
across the Midwest, and into the Northeast, and Mid Atlantic
region. There is some uncertainty as to how far south the
frontal boundary will setup.

A series of waves of low pressure are expected to track along
the frontal boundary. The main question will be exactly how far
south the front moves. This will have an impact on how much
precipitation we see this weekend. The NBM has chance POPS each
period from Friday night through Tuesday, while each day should
not be a rainout.

Also, the placement of the boundary will affect temperatures,
mainly Saturday through the end of the forecast and is noted
with the uncertainty in highs and low seen in the spread of
possibilities with the NBM guidance. As a result of the
uncertainty, and no targets of opportunity, have stayed close to
the NBM deterministic guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front was moving slowly through the region, and at 06Z
was just south of Long Island. Weak high pressure builds in
thereafter.

VFR, except at LIFR fog at KGON and MVFR fog at KBDR.
Conditions may improve to VFR by late tonight, especially for
KBDR, but KGON may hang on to MVFR conditions a few hours after
sunrise.

Winds will be light W to NW to light and variable overnight. A
W to WSW flow develops Wednesday morning, with gusts up to 20
kt possible during the afternoon and winds becoming SW. Gusts
may be more occasional before ending by late afternoon. Sea
breezes are expected at KJFK, KISP, KBDR, and KGON.


    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A sea breeze is expected to move into KJFK early Wednesday
afternoon, and may make it to KLGA by late afternoon. Afternoon
gusts at KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA may be more occasional.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night - Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR. MVFR possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening.

Saturday - Sunday: MVFR cigs or lower likely with chance of
showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions develop tonight into Wednesday morning over
parts of the ocean, east of Fire Island Inlet. Otherwise sub-
SCA conditions are forecast for rest of ocean and non-ocean
waters for the short term through Wednesday. For Wednesday
afternoon, all waters forecast to be below SCA.

With a weak pressure gradient force expected across the forecast
waters, as a frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the ocean
waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
thereafter through the rest of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk for rip current development remains through this
evening at ocean beaches.

The moderate risk for rip current development continues Wednesday
and Thursday at ocean beaches. There may be a brief window for a
high risk at eastern Suffolk ocean beaches Wednesday morning due
to lingering 5 ft seas and southerly swells. Winds will
otherwise be S-SSW 10-15 kt on Wednesday with seas around 4 ft
and a 7-8 second period. Winds will be a bit weaker on Thursday
and may become SW with seas 3 to 4 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...DS/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...