Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

487
FXUS64 KEPZ 151720
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1120 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
 - Breezy and dry today, with temperatures near to slightly below
   normal.

 - Quiet weather and seasonal temperatures Friday, becoming breezy
   on Saturday.

 - Another Pacific storm system will bring gusty winds, blowing
   dust, and critical fire weather conditions back to the area
   Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025
Our slow-moving upper level disturbance has finally moved into the
Central Plains this morning, though longwave troughing persists
across the inter-mountain west. A weak secondary shortwave trough
is evident in satellite imagery over Nevada. This will sweep into
eastern Colorado later today, and will result in breezy west to
southwest winds this afternoon, with a few gusts around 30 mph at
times during the mid-afternoon. Some patchy blowing dust could
get kicked up around Lordsburg and Deming, but it will be low-
impact. Temperatures will run near to slightly below normal
today.

A shortwave trough will develop off the northern Baja coast late
Friday, and weaken as it sweeps across the Borderland early
Saturday. No precip is expected with this system, but it will
make for a breezy afternoon, with a few gusts in the 30 to 35 mph
range.

On its heels, a deep trough will carve out over the Great Basin
again, bringing increasingly windy conditions to our area on
Sunday. A stronger secondary shortwave trough, possibly even a
closed mid-level low, will dive south behind the first system,
reaching the Four Corners Monday evening. Expect a further uptick
in windy conditions on Monday as a result. Blowing dust will also
be a factor again in the usual hotspots.

Peak wind gusts on Sunday look to be in the 40-45 mph range in the
lowlands, and up to 55 mph in the higher terrain. Add about 5 mph
for Monday`s peak winds. A lot depends on the evolution and
timing, especially with Monday`s stronger upper level system, and
this is still a 5-Day forecast, so things could shift between now
and then.

The trough looks to sweep out of the area early enough Tuesday to
calm the winds down. The longer range suggests a building H5
ridge and warming temperatures, perhaps being undercut by low
level southeast flow Thursday and Friday, which would give us a
little boost in moisture that could knock temperatures back a
degree or two. Can`t completely rule out isolated convection with
the moisture intrusion, but the upper ridge would likely suppress
those chances. As for now, we`re looking at mid to upper-90s
possible this time next week. In the longer term, ensembles
suggest about a 10 percent change of reaching 100 at ELP next
Friday, and a 50-60% chance in the Lower Valley below Fabens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Circus field currently over portions of southern Hudspeth county
will continue to push east and out of the area in the next couple
of hours. Winds will become breezy this afternoon with gusts up
to 30kt this afternoon, peaking in and around 21z before slowly
dying off around sunset this evening. Some patchy dust is possible
near the International Border north to Deming from the usual
sources, but impacts will be limited as winds will not be nearly
as strong as the last couple of days across the area. Winds will
diminish quickly after sunset and remain light during the
overnight hours. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the
period across all terminals with any drops in visibility likely to
be brief.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Winds will remain breezy today, but falling short of critical
thresholds with a few gusts 25-30 mph. Fire Weather conditions
will still be elevated, with conditions improving on Friday. Deep
mixing will help keep favorable vent rates in place through the
next several days, and temperatures will be within a few degrees
of seasonal normals.

Southwest breezes will kick up again starting Saturday, with
enhanced fire weather conditions returning. Sunday and especially
Monday are looking like another set of back-to-back critical days
as another Pacific storm system approaches. Lighter winds will
return Tuesday, but a warming trend is looking to set up later
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  60  89  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               50  85  54  84 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               50  87  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  63  44  62 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    50  86  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              45  77  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   48  87  53  87 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                45  85  51  84 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       59  87  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                53  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             57  91  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  80  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   57  90  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             52  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  86  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            48  87  54  86 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    47  88  54  87 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 53  88  58  87 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                51  87  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  77  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                42  74  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 42  74  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  37  79  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                46  85  52  82 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                45  85  50  84 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             31  78  36  77 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   42  80  47  79 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    42  85  46  83 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               34  81  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  46  82  51  79 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   47  87  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  47  86  53  84 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           49  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  81  51  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly