Alamogordo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

062
FXUS64 KEPZ 152330
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
530 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Hottest temperatures of the year so far through Tuesday.
    Lowland highs 105 to 110 degrees.

 -  Dry conditions prevailing this week, with better chances
    beginning next weekend.

 -  Critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday afternoon
    as breezy west winds develop with very dry and hot weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Another very hot day is expected today as the upper high sits on
top of the region. Enough moisture is available to give far
eastern areas a slight chance of showers and storms, starting in
the Sacs during the afternoon and drifting into Hudspeth County
into the evening. The primary threat is strong outflow/downdraft
winds to 50 mph with dry lightning possible due to large dew point
depressions. A cold pool is expected to develop out east late in
the day, expanding westward during the evening to cover much of
the CWA. Gusty E-SE winds to 40 mph accompany the moisture
boundary as it heads west.

On the other side of the CWA is a hotly burning wildfire in the
Gila Region north of Silver City, the Trout Fire. Smoky conditions
have been prevalent in the surrounding valleys and even in the
lowlands the past several days. Pyro-cu have also been observed
coming off the smoke from the fire, which can be expected again
this afternoon. Smoke and hazy skies are forecast west of the RGV
into the evening. The larger Buck Fire in Catron County may also
produce hazy conditions into T or C.

For Monday, the upper high is squished to the south by an incoming
upper trough moving into the Great Basin. Dry westerly flow aloft
will develop on the north side of the ridge, nudging any lingering
surface moisture to the east. Dew points drop to the 20s nearly
everywhere during the afternoon with the exception of far eastern
areas where there is again a very slight chance (10-20%) of
isolated gusty showers/storms. Winds begin to increase as lee
troughing develops along the Front Range with a 995-1000mb
surface low in SE Colorado. The high is pushed further south on
Tuesday as the impulse enters the Central High Plains and creates
a stronger lee-side low. 850mb winds increase to 20-25kts over
much of the region, making for a breezy, dry, and very hot day.
The dry, westerly flow over the top of the ridge will keep
rain/storm chances near zero on Tuesday.

For the rest of the workweek, the upper high makes a return with
light winds, hot temperatures, and dry conditions expected through
Friday. The end of the forecast period gets interesting as the
upper high is progged to shift east towards the Lower MS Valley.
Could this be our introduction to the monsoon? Gulf moisture tap
is expected to develop on the west side of the high, so it all
depends on exactly where the high is located as we head into early
next week.

Temperatures remain very hot for the next couple days as Heat
Advisories are in effect for all of the lowlands. Highs will be
near daily records through Tuesday with 850mb temps of 36-37C
across the area even though our 500mb heights drop by Tuesday to
about 590 dam. As the high makes its comeback later in the week,
temps stay hot but not as scorching as early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Ongoing TS across Trans-Pecos region to the east of KELP bringing
outflow winds into W TX and S NM overnight. Peak gusts 35 knots,
especially for KELP between 01-03Z. Patchy blowing dust may
reduce visibility as outflow arrives. Expecting the amend TAFs as
outflow arrives based on current conditions. Winds diminishing
after 06Z tonight, becoming light 130-160 at 05-10 knots into
Monday morning. Skies FEW-SCT140 tonight, clearing by sunrise
Monday. No direct TS impacts expected at terminals tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Fire danger will be increasing Monday and especially Tuesday as
winds become breezy from the west. For the rest of today, light
winds are forecast from the W-SW underneath the upper high.
Rain/storm chances will be limited to the eastern Sacs and
Hudspeth county this PM. Strong downdraft/outflow winds may
accompany this activity. These outflows are forecast to merge into
a large cold pool that heads to the west this evening. Winds
behind the moisture boundary will be gusty up to 40 mph from E-SE
and could reach into the Gila Region and cause a significant wind
shift where the fires are burning (more likely the Trout Fire than
the Buck Fire). Few to scattered CU develop during the afternoon
in the Gila Region near the ongoing wildfires, including pyro-cu.
It cannot be ruled out that a pyro-cu grows into a thunderstorm
and produces dry lightning near the fires. Overnight RH recovery
will be poor to fair as the outflow winds subside after midnight.

For Monday, the upper high is forced southward by an approaching
upper trough. 20-ft winds increase to 10-15 mph from the west Mon
afternoon mainly W of the RGV. Very low RHs and modestly breezy
winds will create elevated fire danger on Monday. Tuesday will
have the strongest winds as the upper trough passes north and the
lee-side low strengthens. 20-ft winds near 20kts develop during
the afternoon from the west Tuesday afternoon for most of southern
NM. With critically dry fuels and very low RHs continuing, a low-
end Red Flag day is expected for SW NM. Lighter winds return for
Wednesday as ridging builds back in, but dry conditions persist
for the rest of the workweek. Temperatures will stay above normal
through the period.

Min RHs will be 5-12% through Wednesday, then rising slightly late
in the week. Vent rates will be good to excellent through the
week, excellent areawide Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 108  78 109 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67 101  71 103 /  30  10  10   0
Las Cruces               69 104  70 104 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               70 103  71 105 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               56  81  58  81 /  20  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    72 103  72 104 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              67  97  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   69 107  69 106 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                68 103  68 102 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       77 105  78 105 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                67 104  71 107 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             72 108  75 110 /  20   0   0   0
Loma Linda               70  99  72 100 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   72 107  74 108 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             72 104  73 104 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           75 105  79 105 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            68 104  69 104 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    67 106  69 106 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 73 107  75 106 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                69 102  71 104 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  60  92  62  93 /  30  10   0   0
Mescalero                60  93  61  93 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                 57  90  59  91 /  20  10   0   0
Winston                  59  96  59  94 /  10  10   0   0
Hillsboro                67 103  69 101 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                65 103  67 103 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             60  98  60  95 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   66 101  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    65 103  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               64  99  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  69 100  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   69 103  69 103 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  68 103  69 103 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           70 103  69 101 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale               69  98  67  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
     Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central
     Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt