North Platte, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

330
FXUS63 KLBF 160529
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1229 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and strong winds this afternoon

- Gusty winds continue for Friday

- Additional chances for scattered thunderstorms Saturday into
  early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The main concern in the short term is the ongoing
showers with embedded thunderstorms. Good lapse rates and CAPE
values around 1000 J/kg will be enough to sustain weak convection
that has developed this afternoon. The greatest lapse rates will be
across the southern Sandhills into southwest and central Nebraska,
which is where the greatest chances for embedded isolated
thunderstorms will exist. Not expecting thunderstorms to reach
severe criteria, although a few of the stronger storms may
contain small hail and gusty erratic winds. Expect most of the
shower and thunderstorms activity to diminish by evening hours.


As for the winds the remainder of today and Friday. Strong gusty
winds will continue this afternoon and will begin to decrease
overnight to around 15 to 20 mph. Winds will then begin to increase
by late morning supported by bufkit soundings. Winds will be strong
at 850 and 700 mb and expect stronger winds to mix to the sfc.
However, at this time have decided to forgo any high wind warning
headlines as confidence is low in any widespread winds sustained 40
mph or gust of 58 mph or greater, that being said there may be
pockets of localized higher wind gust, generally in the late morning
and afternoon. Winds will diminish in the evening as the upper level
low continues to move east.

As for precipitation chances on Friday, models have started to trend
further north with the system and thus precipitation chances
continue to move northward, have kept some low pops in the
forecast across the northern Sandhills, but the better chances
for precipitation will be across SD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The weather pattern becomes a little more active this
weekend into early next week. A weak trof will move in from the west
Saturday, forcing is fairly weak, thus anticipate any thunderstorm
development on Saturday evening and overnight to be isolated. This
will mainly be driven by orographic lifting over the WY and storms
sustaining themselves into the Panhandle and western Nebraska.
However, this should be fairly isolated for thunderstorms as most of
the storms will not move into the area until late evening, after
sunset and daytime heating, leading to an environment less favorable
to sustain a storm. The better chance for thunderstorm development
will be Sunday as a SFC deepens and moves northward, however there
has been some discrepancies in the models. Although it does
look like a southeast flow should advect moisture into the area
out ahead of the system some outlier models have cooler
temperatures and even decent cloud coverage across the area
which could hinder thunderstorm development, so will need to
continue to monitor this system as it gets closer. Additional
storm chances will continue into early next week with daily
chances through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Low stratus overspreads northern Nebraska terminals around
sunrise, with MVFR CIGs expected to persist into this
afternoon. Gradual improvement back to VFR is expected for all
area terminals this evening. Rain showers are also expected for
terminals north of Highway 2 this afternoon, with locally MVFR
visibilities possible.

Winds quickly strengthen from the northwest after sunrise, with
gusts as high as 40 to 50kts expected this afternoon for all
area terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Brown