Falls City, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

910
FXUS63 KOAX 131049
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
549 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than average temperatures top out in the upper 80s
  today and in the lower 90s tomorrow with light winds.

- On-and-off shower and thunderstorms chances (15-60% PoPs)
  into early next week. Best severe-weather potential currently
  appears to be Saturday, Monday and Tuesday.

- Highs continue to hover around 90 into early next week, before
  a cooldown arrives Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Today:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a compact shortwave trough
ejecting east-northeast from the KS/MO/AR/OK vicinity while a sub-
severe MCS pushes southward into northwest Kansas -- all underneath
a quasi-zonal pattern situated over the northern tier of CONUS
states. Earlier this morning, wind gusts of 40-50 mph have been
observed in north-central Nebraska where a weak surface low and a
meso high induced by the overnight convection have increased the
local surface pressure gradient and joined ample DCAPE and downshear
anvil cooling. This has since diminished as the main MCS has become
further dislocated from the weak surface low in north-central
Nebraska.

Looking forward the daytime hours, sticky cloud cover left over from
the overnight activity to the west will work to take the edge off of
the previously forecasted highs, with no spot in eastern
Nebraska or Iowa slated to hit 90 degrees today. Longer peeks
at the sun should settle in closer to the 3 PM timeframe, when
temperatures could shoot up quickly and recover lost heating
from the early day rather quickly. Another thing to watch for is
a weakly convergent zone oriented form north-to-south this
afternoon, which could result in a stray pulse storm from 1 to 5
PM in eastern Nebraska, which will most should only result in a
sprinkle, but if the convergence is strong enough (~10% chance)
we could see lightning and a localized downpour before the the
storm quickly collapses. Overnight, we`ll be looking to the west
as another MCS leaps from the High Plains in western Nebraska
and shoots southward into northwest Kansas.

Saturday through Monday:

By Saturday, eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will find itself
fenced-in by a warm from to the north and some form of
dryline/surface trough to the west up the High Plains. We`ll have
two avenues of rain/storm chances throughout the day, with the first
one during the morning/afternoon hours as a subtle shortwave
moves across the forecast area. As of now, extended runs of the
CAMs are somewhat timid in developing storms, but the ARWs and
NAM Nest all hint at some form of convection along the surface
warm front in the northeast Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity, with
the sufficient thermodynamics despite weak shear supportive of
marginally severe storms during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Afterwards, we`ll be watching for High Plains convection
that will be pushing east-southeastward during the overnight
hours for any further severe risk (which stands as level 1 out
of 5 currently). Temperatures during the afternoon will once
again climb into the lower 90s and make pool time or another way
to cool down a must for those outside.

Sunday will similarly see a shortwave push through the area while a
stationary front continues to lurk just to the north and east of the
forecast area as it stretches towards Wyoming. Better mid-level
lapse rates should be in place by the afternoon hours compared to
Saturday, with storms capable of damaging hail and strong winds
largely being contained close to the front (affecting mostly
northeast Nebraska), but weaker activity could also extend
throughout the forecast area.

Monday and Beyond:

The beginning of the work week should see the postively-tilted ridge
continue to nudge further into the forecast area, helping highs once
again touch the low 90s before dipping back down Tuesday. Looking at
storm chances, global models seem to favor a southern slide of the
aforementioned surface fronts alongside another mid/upper
shortwave. and intruding jet streak will only be arriving
Monday, while Tuesday has it squarely overhead, giving it the
nod for the highest severe potential in the extended forecast.
In addition to the severe hazards, ample model QPF and WPC`s
Excessive Rainfall Outlooks also hug the sluggish fronts as they
continue to linger, highlighting heavy rain chances.

By mid-week, the low-level thermals swing to the cool side as the
Tuesday rain/storm chances and mid/upper support has their influence
linger. We`ll be back on the rise Thursday, with the latter part of
the week showing signs that a thermal ridge pushes eastward over the
area, and we could see some heat return -- just in time for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period, with
winds staying largely out of the south, wavering to the
southeast at times and topping out at around 10 kts during the
afternoon hours. Expect high clouds to continue to dissipate
before a low/mid cloud field develops, with a low-end chance
(~10% chance) that a shower or storm develops in a thicker
patch of clouds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen