Petal, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

971
FXUS64 KJAN 160647 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
147 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The current forecast looks to be in good alignment headed into the
overnight hours. Refreshed winds, temps, and dew points for
overnight. Tonight`s low temps will threaten warm min temp
records in a few locations with temps about 10-12 degrees warmer
than normal for mid May. A warm and breezy day should develop for
Friday. High-res short-term guidance still indicates the
approaching disturbance from our west will not arrive with showers
or storms in our forecast area until after 7PM tomorrow. After
that time, expect a steady uptick of chances for showers and
storms in the ArkLaMiss Delta region gradually spreading across
areas of Mississippi north of Interstate 20 into early Saturday
morning. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Tonight and Friday: Warmer than normal and dry through the period.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge across our CWA from the
east and a low over the northern Plains with a trailing cold front
back across the central and southern Plains. The resulting pressure
gradient across our CWA was resulting in a gusty southwest to south
wind that will gradually subside this evening. This gusty south wind
has worked to increase low level moisture across our region and dew
points were running in the lower 70s. This increase in low level
moisture will help hold temperatures well above normal tonight. Mid
afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation
around a closed low spinning over the northern Plains. This low will
shift east through Friday and help drop the cold front into northern
Mississippi. The upper level ridging over our CWA today will have
shifted east leaving near zonal flow aloft. This will help the cold
front stall north of our CWA. There will be the potential for strong
to severe storms along and south of the cold front but, at this
time it appears any threat for severe weather in our north will hold
off until Friday night. /22/

Friday night through Wednesday night:

Quasi-zonal flow to prevail across the CWA through the weekend with
afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide. With
this quasi-zonal flow expected across the region, an unstable
airmass will begin to move into the region. This airmass, combined
with a couple of upper-level disturbances aloft and some
northerly moisture flow from the Tennessee Valley, will allow for
rain/storm chances across central/northern portions of our CWA
around the Friday night through Sunday evening/night timeframe. Strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

The "Marginal" risk (1 out of 5) for Friday night has been
expanded slightly further south with the main hazards being
damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. In addition, the
"Slight" risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather that was upgraded
last forecast package has been expanded in our northwest today.
Damaging wind gust up to 60-70 mph and hail up to golf ball size
will be the main concerns for areas highlighted in our latest
graphic. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall at
times, with rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1 inches. Given
that this system will moving quite fast across our CWA, flash
flooding concerns will be low; however, some localized flash
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Rain chances will begin to decrease Sunday night into the new work
week as a sfc ridge builds over the southeast CONUS. Quiet
conditions will continue across much of our forecast area with a
slight chance of scattered showers across portions of the Golden
Triangle heading into Monday afternoon. Quiet weather conditions
will occur across the area looking ahead into Tuesday morning as
future global guidance shows the ridge axis beginning to slowly push
east away from our forecast area giving us a small little break from
the rain.

A significant low pressure system over the Central Plains will push
east towards the Ohio River Valley region Tuesday afternoon/
evening. The associated cold front over southern Texas will track
east towards the southeast region late Tuesday evening. This
combined with southerly moisture flow from the Gulf will help
reintroduce scattered showers/t-storm chances across our entire CWA.
Storm chances will continue heading into Wednesday as the cold
pushes east across our forecast area. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions to start the period as scattered
to broken low stratus is beginning to spread north from the Gulf
Coast. Mixing and lifting of the between 14Z-17Z should bring
prevailing VFR conditions by 18Z at all sites. Gusty winds to
return in that time frame as well, with gusts up to around 20-25
kts possible. Chances for any showers or storms near KGLH were too
low to include at this time, though cannot be entirely ruled out
between 00Z-06Z Saturday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  10
Meridian      72  91  69  90 /  10  30  20  30
Vicksburg     74  91  72  91 /  20  20  20  10
Hattiesburg   74  94  72  94 /   0  10  10   0
Natchez       75  91  72  90 /   0  10  10   0
Greenville    72  90  71  89 /  60  20  40  30
Greenwood     72  90  70  89 /  60  30  40  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SW/NF