Chaska, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

335
FXUS63 KMPX 160010
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
710 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing line of severe storms likely to grow in coverage and
  intensity across Wisconsin this afternoon.

- Gusty SW winds to 40-50 mph tonight and Friday.

- Cooler pattern tomorrow into much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Broken line of storms has fired along a cold front which is
pushing into central Minnesota and western Wisconsin at this
time. So far severe reports have been limited, although a few
funnels/landspout-like tornadoes have been reported in central
and western Minnesota. As storms push into western Wisconsin
they will encounter an environment more favorable for robust
storms as these areas have warmed into the lower 80s and
midlevel shear is increasing. This should allow storms to grow
out of the minisupercell form they had taken earlier into
larger severe supercells capable of large hail and a few
tornadoes. Earlier tornadoes across central/western MN occurred
with storms that developed directly on a boundary draped across
that region, while storms a bit further east and displaced from
that boundary have yet to produce confirmed tornadoes. Radar
shows this boundary extends southeastward and is beginning to
intersect the line of storms just east and southeast of the MSP
metro, and this part of western Wisconsin will be the area to
watch for additional tornado development this afternoon. Given
the more robust nature of these storms, stronger tornadoes will
be a very real threat along with large hail 2"+.

These storms will continue to push into central/southern
Wisconsin this evening at which point our attention will turn to
gusty southwest winds moving in behind the cold front. Cold air
advection overnight will allow gusts to continue through the
night and early morning, continuing into much of Friday. For
this reason the current wind advisory was extended overnight and
through the day Friday. As was the case this afternoon, the
advisory includes southern and western Minnesota where gusts to
50 mph are possible.

Friday looks to be a rather miserable day weather-wise, as in
addition to the wind expect prolonged periods of light rain and
temperatures struggling to rise out of the 50s for many areas.
While rain will clear out Friday night, below average
temperatures will persist into much of next week, along with
more widespread rain chances Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Storms have cleared out of the area, leaving mainly scattered
VFR in its wake. Primary concern moving forward will be gusty
southwest winds of 30-35 kts through much of the period. We
should see winds dampen overnight a bit, but will remain gusty.
Western and southern MN could see gusts over 40 kts. Light rain
showers and lowering cigs will gradually move in from west to
east Friday morning and afternoon. Winds begin to shift more
westerly tomorrow afternoon and evening.

KMSP...Gusty SWerly winds will persist through early tomorrow
evening around 220-240. Gusts over 30 kts will continue to be
likely during this period, with a slight decrease starting
this evening around 02-03z. Winds will become gusty again around
12-13z Friday morning. Gusts as high as 40 kts will be possible
again Friday, but are not expected to be as frequent as we saw
this afternoon and evening. Winds will start to decrease and
shift more westerly around 22-01z Friday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR mrng cigs likely. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind ESE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Blue Earth-Brown-
     Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-
     Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...BED