Livonia, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

736
FXUS63 KDTX 160432
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1232 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thundestorms expected 10pm and 3am tonight. Large
hail and damaging winds are the main threats, with a low chance of a
few tornadoes.

- Warm again on Friday with another round of showers and
thunderstorms developing late Friday evening/Friday night. Some of
these storms will also be strong to marginally severe.

- Cooler conditions this weekend, with westerly wind gusts 30-40 mph
  on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Squall line producing very strong winds, large hail, isolated
tornados, and persist downpours continues to work from west to east
across the terminals tonight. Gusts in excess of 60 knots and at
least one confirmed tornado have been reported upstream with this
system. Trends continue to favor MVFR visibility reductions in the
main rain band, with brief IFR reductions noted at MBS and FNT.
Timing the exit is the main forecast concern for the next TAF cycle
as the lingering back-edge will be slower to depart from DTW and DET
near the very beginning of the TAF window. The line should fully
clear east of all sites by 07Z. Post-frontal VFR conditions move in
early Friday and throughout the day. Surface flow weakens, backing
from southwest to southeast during the afternoon. Additional showers
and storms possible late Friday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection... A decaying line of strong to severe
thunderstorms crosses DTW during the 05-06Z time window.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling 5000 feet or less toward midnight through
  sunrise the low through Friday.

* High for thunderstorms tonight, mainly 05-06Z Friday, then low
  confidence after 00Z Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

DISCUSSION...

Moderate instability has built up across southeast Michigan with
MLcapes aoa 1500 J/kg with sbcapes 2000-3000 J/kg as of 18z. None-
the-less, just a modest CU field around as warm/dry mid levels cap
activity for now. Severe thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
this evening with arrival of the height falls and increasing wind
fields, but bulk of thunderstorm activity looks to be impacting
southeast Michigan around midnight. With the southeast winds, a
stabilizing marine influence off of Lake Erie/Lake St. Clair looks
to be coming into play, but an enhanced low level
temperature/instability gradient will set up across the western half
of the CWA (along/west of US-23). These locations stand the best
chance of activity remaining surface based, and thus the greatest
potential for damaging wind gusts with a chance of tornadoes as 0-1
KM bulk shear resides in the 25 to 30 knot range.  With increasing
southwest low level jet (50+ knots) and steep mid level lapses,
large hail will be a concern as well, as cape (1500+ J/kg) is
maximized around the freezing level to -20 C.  Progressive nature of
activity will limit flood threat, but urban areas (Wayne county) are
not completely out of the woods, as strong to severe thunderstorms
could drop a quick 1.5-2 inches in an hour in localized spots, as PW
values peak around 1.75 inches. Majority of hi-res solutions all
generally indicating a broken to near solid line of
showers/thunderstorms rolling through, ending 2-4 AM.

With the large 500 MB low center still back across the Western Great
Lakes on Friday, deep southwest flow will promote another warm day,
as 850 MB temps around 15 C will be supportive of high temperatures
in the low to mid 80s. A spoke of energy/shortwave looks to be
rotating around and tracking through southeast Michigan around
midnight once again. Confidence is high in another round of showers
and thunderstorms developing late Friday evening/night as the healthy
cold front tracks through. Although instability parameters are less
than this evening, wind fields/bulk shear and capes in 1000-2000 J/kg
range seem supportive of at least a marginal risk of severe storms.

Cooler and breezy on Saturday, as surface low (992-994 MB) tracks
through the northern Great Lakes. Pretty good cold advection with
850 MB temps lowering into the mid single numbers. Steepening low
level lapse rates during the day generates some modest cape, which
may touch of isolated-scattered showers. Otherwise, local
probabilistic guidance suggests wind gusts of 30-40 MPH during the
day.

Weak shortwave riding for Sunday, but there is already another
shortwave/re-enforcing shot of cold air to track through the Great
Lakes region for Sunday night. Dry air and northwest confluent flow
looks to keep us dry to start the work week. Another large low
pressure system to develop over the Central Plains, but still
uncertainty with the magnitude and areal extent during the mid week
period, which will impact the timing of showers returning to
southeast Michigan.


MARINE...

Light E/SE flow continues across the region this afternoon-evening
though funneling down the Saginaw Bay has allowed for local
enhancement towards 15kts. A warm front tied to strong northern
Plains low pressure is currently lifting out of the Ohio Valley
towards the Great Lakes this afternoon. A line of strong/severe
thunderstorms is expected to develop over the western Great Lakes
and push through our area late evening-early tonight (~10p-3a). All
hazards (strong winds, hail, waterspouts) are in play though wind
gusts greater than 40kts and hail above a half inch are the main
threats. Southerly winds up to 15-20kts develop post front for
Friday as the low tracks over Lake Superior. This system then sweeps
a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Friday evening-
early Saturday night generating another line of showers and
thunderstorms- a few of which could be severe (wind and hail
hazards). Moderate west-southwest winds follow Saturday with the
strongest winds (20-30kts) expected over the southern half of the
region where the gradient is strongest. Small craft advisories are
likely needed for most if not all nearshore waters as a result. Low
fully departs Sunday shifting winds to the northwest. Gusts peak
near 20kts during the day before weakening overnight as weak high
pressure slides overhead.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KDK


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