Salisbury, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS61 KAKQ 160703
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
303 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like temperatures and humidity are expected today and
tonight, along with the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Similarly warm for Saturday as a cold front
crosses the area, bringing additional showers and storms. High
pressure briefly returns for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
cool down and conditions become unsettled into the middle of
next week as an upper level low pressure system develops west
of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible across the area
  this afternoon into tonight, but confidence remains low on
  placement and timing of storms.

- Summer-like temperatures and humidity today and tonight.

WNW flow aloft prevails across the Mid-Atlantic this morning with
ridging extending from the Southeastern CONUS into New England. A
prominent upper low (stacked atop strong 981 mb sfc low pressure) is
located over the northern Plains, with an attendant trough over the
Midwest and western Great Lakes. Locally, the sfc pattern remains
quite nebulous with high pressure well offshore to our SE. A few
isolated showers have popped up over the Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore, though not expecting much more than a sprinkle from these and
have elected to keep PoPs below 15% for this activity. Some patchy
fog may also develop again this morning given residual sfc moisture
and light winds, but dense fog is not really expected at this time.

Similar to yesterday, there are looming uncertainties in the
thunderstorm forecast today, especially late this morning into the
afternoon. A convective complex likely develops over the TN Valley
early this morning, progressing eastward through daybreak. There is
some potential for the leftovers of this to slide E of the mountains
and move through the area early this afternoon. This solution is
shown by most CAMs. Some show a line of storms moving through the
heart of our CWA (HRRR and experimental NSSL MPAS models) while
others have it moving mainly to our S (HRW-NSSL, FV3, ARW).
Ultimately, the track (and intensity) depends on the these storms
initially set up and track and when they move through. If it moves
through in the afternoon, the environmental parameter space again
looks quite favorable for severe weather with strong instability and
shear (2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective shear),
though forecast soundings do show a weak cap. Later tonight, height
falls overspread the area as the trough advances eastward and this
could support a more widespread convective event. This will be tied
to another developing complex convective complex/MCS over the TN and
OH Valley, with these storms also expected to track eastward toward
the area. Still, the evolution of the overnight convection will
likely be tied to what happens the day as large storm complexes are
very effective at modifying the mesoscale environment. All of this
again lends to a rather low confidence forecast and am not confident
enough to have anything higher than 30-40% PoPs today. Will show the
first round with mainly 30% PoPs, followed by 20% PoPs for the
evening with a potential lull, followed again by 30-40% PoPs tonight
(highest W and NW). As the evolution of the convection becomes more
clear later this morning and afternoon, adjustments to the forecasts
are likely.

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a broad Level 2 out 5
(Slight) Risk for all of our VA and MD counties, with a Level 1 out
5 (Marginal) Risk for our NC counties. With the aforementioned
environment being very favorable for damaging winds and large hail,
the *potential* for severe weather exists areawide.

Outside of convection, a very warm to hot day is expected with the
ridge overhead. Temperatures warm into the lower 90s for most areas
W of the Chesapeake Bay, with mid-upper 80s on the Eastern Shore.
With a moist low-level airmass and dew points around 70 F, it will
feel quite humid and heat indices should peak in the mid to
potentially upper 90s for a good portion of the area. Skies also
average mostly to partly sunny, though variable cloudiness would be
expected around and within thunderstorm activity. Lows tonight
should be very reminiscent of summer and range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm Saturday with additional strong to severe thunderstorms
potentially developing along a cold front Saturday afternoon and
evening.

- Drying out later Saturday into Sunday behind a cold front.

Another hot day is ahead for Saturday ahead of a cold front. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with the
warmest temps across the SE. The details of any convection in the
afternoon hours are again fuzzy given the dependence on what happens
tonight into early Saturday, particularly surrounding any leftover
precip or storms. Additionally, the primary shortwave and ascent
will become displaced N of the region later in the day. There will
still likely be a favorable kinematic and thermodynamic
parameter space in place, conditionally favorable for a severe
weather threat. Given this, SPC has maintained a Level 2 out of
5 (Slight) severe weather risk for most of the area, minus our
far western counties in the Piedmont. The main threat would
again be damaging winds, with large hail also possible. With
drier air filtering in behind the front Saturday night, expect
cooler low temps in the lower to mid 60s.

Still quite warm for Sunday as only modest cold advection occurs
behind the front. Highs in the lower to mid 80s, warmest across the
S and SE and coolest on the Eastern Shore. Overnight lows drop into
the 50s inland and lower 60s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and warm Monday.

- Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday through Thursday.

High pressure builds over the region, at least briefly, for Monday
as the upper trough axis shifts further offshore. Dry weather is
thus expected for Monday, outside of some increasing higher clouds
from the west. High temperatures in the mid 70s are expected on the
Eastern Shore, with lower 80s elsewhere.

An upper level low is favored to develop in the Midwest Tuesday into
Wednesday, which will lead to an unsettled weather pattern
developing. The specifics remain unclear with differences among the
deterministic guidance, but Wednesday currently appears to be the
wettest day next week. A few showers are also possible by later
Tuesday. With the increased precipitation chances, temperatures
trend cooler...and likely below seasonal norms...by Wednesday and
Thursday. Below normal temperatures remain favored through the end
of the week and looking ahead to next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Friday...

CIGs are VFR at the terminals to start off the forecast period.
A marine layer may attempt to push inland early this morning
(mainly after ~08z) with MVFR/IFR CIGs possible at SBY. Patchy
fog is also possible at SBY and RIC. MVFR or IFR VIS will be
possible in any fog. MVFR CIGs may linger at SBY until 14-15z.
Additional showers and thunderstorms develop later today, with
potentially two rounds impacting the TAF sites, the first round
being this afternoon and the second round tonight. Highest
confidence for showers/storms this afternoon is at RIC and PHF,
where a PROB30 has been introduced from 18 to 21z. While there
is a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to timing, some
of the storms could be severe with gusts up to 50 kt (or
higher).

Outlook: Additional showers/storms will remain possible into
early Saturday morning. Another round of sub-VFR CIGs and patchy
fog is also possible at SBY early Saturday morning. Predominate
VFR conditions return over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Generally sub-SCA conditions into the weekend, but with
  elevated SW flow ahead of a cold front Saturday, and elevated
  NW flow behind the front Sunday-Monday.

- Locally strong to severe storms possible into tonight and
  again late Friday/Friday night.

A weak pressure gradient across the area this aftn has led to
light and variable winds, slowly shifting from SW to more of an
E-SE direction across the lower Bay, and to the S elsewhere.
Seas are still a bit elevated with SE swell, at 3-4 ft, with
waves in the Bay/rivers/sound 1 foot or less, except near 2 ft
at the mouth of the bay. Scattered storms, potentially strong to
severe, are possible this evening/tonight, especially for the
Bay/rivers and will be handled via MWS/SMWs as needed.

Otherwise, winds increase a bit on friday, becoming S-SW
~10-15 kt, with yet another round of scattered showers and
storms possible, but mainly holding off until very late in the
aftn or early evening into Friday night. There may be brief
period of elevated, near sub-SCA SW winds Saturday afternoon
and evening, especially across the lower James/lower Bay. Winds
veer around to the W/NW Sunday and Sunday night in the wake of
a passing cold front. Next chance for SCA level winds comes with
a secondary surge of cooler, drier air Sunday night into
Monday, though this remains uncertain at this range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond-
Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in
minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for
more site- specific information.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...KMC/SW
AVIATION...AJB/RMM
MARINE...LKB
HYDROLOGY...