North Bethesda, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

297
FXUS61 KLWX 160800
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front is expected to lift through and to the northeast
of the region today into late afternoon. A low pressure system
will move into the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front
pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build
in from the north Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery at 330am shows an isolated shower over the southern
tip of St. Mary`s County in southern Maryland and an isolated shower
to the north of Hancock, Maryland in southern Pennsylvania. Both
showers are fast movers and have no lightning associated with them.
Some of the convective models indicate that there could be a few
more isolated showers popping up in sporadic fashion in parts of our
region but are not in agreement as to where they would occur and
move. What the models are agreeing with is a possible thin line of
showers that could develop over southeast Ohio and northern West
Virginia and move into western Maryland between 5am and 7am. It
doesn`t appear that the line would be severe with damaging winds and
hail due to lack of daytime heating. However, a brief downpour in
places would be more probable. Models are also indicating that no
matter how many showers or any embedded thunderstorms that form and
more across western Maryland before or around daybreak, this
activity could hold together and perhaps be accompanied by other
showers and thunderstorms as a trough begins to develop over west-
central parts of the region throughout today.

Convective models along with the NAM and GFS deterministic are
indicating that round two of heavier showers and stronger to
severe thunderstorms could evolve during the midday and
afternoon hours and move across our CWA. The Storms Prediction
Center has our region in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms
today into tonight. The threats are damaging wind gusts and
large hail. Accompanying these threats will be heavy rain and
could occur over areas that had already taken on a lot of
rainfall in the past few days.

Just as round two could come and go this afternoon and be more
potent than the first, a third round could be on the horizon
later this evening into the overnight. Since we won`t have our
daytime heating, the severity could be diminished some, but the
humidity, nearby trough, approaching cold front on Saturday
could be enough to make it interesting in terms of severe
elements overnight.

High temperatures today should push the upper 80s in the eastern
half or even close to 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As eluded to in the previous paragraph and Near Term, a cold
front will approach and push across the region on Saturday.
Looks like, it could sweep through mid-morning Saturday (mntns)
and late afternoon Saturday (Bay). Nonetheless, the Storms
Prediction Center is keeping the eastern half of our region in a
Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday
night. A Marginal Risk a little farther to the west. Stay tuned
for development of showers and thunderstorms along this front.

High temperatures will remain warm with highs in the middle to
upper 80s Saturday.

Once the front pushes through the region, Saturday night and
through the day Sunday, winds will shift around from a warm
southwest flow and increase out of the northwest by Sunday into
Sunday night.

Drier and cooler air will filter in during this window. Highs
Sunday will be more likely in the middle 70s and seasonable for
mid-May.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period will start out dry as surface high pressure
builds over the forecast area. High temperatures will be in the 70s
to low 80s with higher elevations staying in the 60s. Dry conditions
continue through Tuesday morning as high pressure shifts eastward.
To the southwest, a low pressure system developing over the central
CONUS will track eastward towards the forecast area, bringing
precipitation chances beginning Tuesday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible areawide Wednesday and Thursday afternoon
as the associated warm front nears the area.

Temperatures will be below normal with highs gradually falling each
day. By Thursday, high temperatures will be in the 60s for most with
higher elevations staying in the 50s. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is also potential for one or more rounds of showers and
thunderstorms early this morning then again later this afternoon.
The first of which will move through the northern half of the
area early.

Another round of thunderstorms could arrive tonight into
Saturday morning. This round has the most uncertainty at this
point. An MCS moving in from the Ohio Valley may make it into
our region late this evening into tonight night. This could be
yet another risk for damaging wind gusts, but the timing and
certainty of occurrence is still just not quite there yet. So,
will hopefully have more details as this moves into the TAF
period.

There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as
well, which could also contain damaging wind gusts. This should
push through rather early on in the day, giving way to drier
and windy conditions in its wake.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday into the start of next week as
high pressure maintains control across the region.

Northwesterly winds on Monday shift to north/northeasterly on
Tuesday. Winds gust up to 15 knots on Monday and are expected to
blow 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected both
days across all terminals. The exception will be Tuesday night
where showers and thunderstorms may impact CHO and MRB.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions should prevail through tonight with winds
becoming southwesterly. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible across mainly the southern Maryland waters late this
evening. However, highest confidence area for storms is south of
the waters at this time.

A decaying line of showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms,
will push through the area this morning. This could bring some
gusty winds, but SMWs don`t seem likely at this time thanks to
the nocturnal inversion being in place. The rest of today looks
quiet, though hot and humid conditions during the afternoon
could spark a few thunderstorms near the waters, and of which
could bring down some gusty winds.

The best chance for severe weather looks to push through late
tonight through early Saturday. Timing and location of an MCS
approaching from the west is still very uncertain, but
conditions will be favorable for damaging wind gusts if this
does traverse the mountains and make it to the waters. SMWs
would likely be needed if this feature tracks directly over our
area.

Additionally, a cold front will push through Saturday, with SCA
conditions likely in its wake. A few storms may develop ahead of
this front early in the day as well, which could bring their own
gusty wind threat.

SCA conditions likely on Sunday as winds gust around 20-25 knots
across all the waters. High pressure settles overhead Sunday night
into Monday, bringing sub-SCA winds.

Northwesterly winds on Monday shift to north/northeasterly on
Tuesday, with SCA criteria winds likely in the northern portions of
the waters Monday afternoon. Winds are expected to drop below SCA
criteria on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Freshwater flooding will continue at Georgetown through this
afternoon with the high tide cycle. The site remains in moderate
flood stage. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for this
threat. Water should recede this evening and drop back below
flood stage after the overnight high tide cycle.

DC SW Waterfront and Alexandria may even approach minor over
the next few high tide. For the time being both should drop
below Action Stage early today before making a run at minor.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KLW
MARINE...AVS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW