Ashland, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

919
FXUS61 KRLX 160542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north of the area this today bringing much
warmer weather, along with several rounds of severe weather
through Friday night, some of which could be significant.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1045 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 715 PM Thursday...

No significant changes made to the forecast other than taking
out mention of showers and storms for this evening as things
should stay very quiet. Tweaked PoPs for the overnight into
Friday morning to add in newer guidance which equated to minimal
changes to the forecast. The bulk of the forecast remains on
track.

As of 310 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * Warm front lifts north of the area this afternoon/evening

 * Several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms possible, with
   the greatest concern being late tonight into Friday morning,
   but especially late Friday afternoon into Friday night

An active near term period is expected with multiple rounds of
showers/storms possible. At present, a surface warm front is
lifting north across the central CWA, and will continue to
traverse the rest of the forecast area over the next few hours,
resulting in a warm afternoon, with highs topping out in the
low to mid 80s across the lowlands. Additionally, isolated
showers/storms are possible through this afternoon/evening.
While instability will be on the higher end (2,000-2,500 J/kg
mixed-layer) following the passage of the front, forcing will be
quite weak (differential heating/topographic effects) amid a
noted cap. Activity has been quite muted this afternoon, but the
potential for a strong to severe thunderstorm or two remains
possible if storms are able to initiate despite the capping. The
main hazards w/ convection today would be wind/hail.

The overnight will begin on the quiet side with mainly dry
conditions expected across the forecast area. While not
anticipated to be nearly as widespread as last night, some
patchy mountain valley fog is expected to develop given weaker
boundary layer flow further south/east. Another round of
showers/storms then approaches the region later tonight from the
north/west in association with convection further west that has
yet to initiate. Current thinking is that by the time this
activity reaches the forecast area, it should be mainly elevated
in nature and in a weakening trend, although the potential for
some strong to isolated severe storms does remains possible,
with wind/hail being the primary hazards, with the greatest risk
across northwest portions of the CWA. This activity should exit
the eastern portion of the forecast area by mid/late Friday
morning. Lows tonight will be in the 60s across much of the
forecast area.

Friday will be another warm day across the region with highs
progged for the low 80s across the lowlands, with 70s in the
mountains. A period of mainly dry weather is progged for the
late morning and afternoon, with another round of thunderstorms
expected beginning sometime in the late afternoon or early
evening in the form of a MCS. Some timing/location uncertainty does
still exist, but confidence is increasing in this feature
moving across the CWA late afternoon into Friday night. Given
such, SPC has upgraded much of the forecast area into a Enhanced
Risk for late Friday into Friday night. The main hazard will be
strong to significant damaging winds, but large hail and
isolated embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially
given any discrete convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * Ongoing outbreak of severe weather Friday night that could
   pose concerns for all hazards

 * A succession of cold fronts will bring precipitation and
   severe weather to a close on Saturday

 * Dry weather to round out the weekend

The forecast period opens up in the midst of severe weather
brought forth by a bowing segment first originating in the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday afternoon. Ongoing
uncertainty with this evolving system will dictate the severity
factor Friday night, but as of this issuance, strong wording for
damaging wind gusts and large hail were included through
midnight Friday night. The risk for tornadoes and heavy
downpours will also be probable in activity.

The low pressure system orchestrating this severe weather will
be progressing through the Great Lakes region at the start of
the weekend, and will drive a cold front through the forecast
area on Saturday. This will bring precipitation to a gradual end
and will push the severe risk into the eastern seaboard on
Saturday. A reinforcing cold front will yield dry weather to
round out the weekend in addition to cooling temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

The start of the work week grows more active as shortwave energy
rounding an upper level ridge ventures into the area starting
late Monday. Guidance then enters into a realm of various
solutions for next week, but all point towards a more active
state as the ridge breaks down and low pressure blankets the
area with showers and more potential for thunderstorms.
Seasonable temperatures round out the extended period, with
daytime highs ranging in the 60s and 70s, then toppling down
into the 40s and 50s during the overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Friday...

Most of the area should remain VFR this morning, though a few
terminals could dip to MVFR due to lower ceilings. While showers
will continue to graze the area before sunrise, better chances
of rain and thunderstorms are expected to arrive mid morning
into the afternoon. Activity should briefly diminish during the
evening before a new line of storms passes west to east across
the area Friday night. Periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities will be
possible within any heavier showers or storms that develop
during the TAF period.

Light to moderate southwest winds may gust into the teens at
times this morning. Winds then strengthen for the afternoon
when gusts into the 20 to 25 kt range will be possible. Even
stronger gusts are expected to occur within storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of thunderstorms may
vary from the forecast. A brief period of LLWS could also be
possible before wind gusts initiate later today.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 05/16/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in heavy rain and storms Friday
night, and then again Saturday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/GW
NEAR TERM...JZ/GW
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...20