Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

424
FXUS62 KTBW 160658
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
258 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Broad upper level ridging will hold over the southern Gulf through
the first half of next week, then will flatten out Wednesday and
Thursday as a trough swings through the southeastern US north of
Florida. At the surface, the sub tropical ridge will hold across
Central Florida through Saturday, then will shift into south Florida
on Sunday and slide farther south Wednesday and Thursday as the
aforementioned trough brings a cold front into Florida. Under this
pattern, warm and dry conditions will hold through the first half
of next week, with afternoon highs reaching into the low to mid
90s over the interior, and upper 80s and low 90s along the coast.
Some patchy ground fog will be possible in the mornings, but
widespread fog is not expected. Rain chances will remain near zero
through Tuesday, then moisture will begin to increase ahead of
the cold front, allowing for increased rain chanced Wednesday and
into Thursday. Temperatures will drop a few degrees on Thursday
behind the front, but highs will still run a couple of degrees
above normal, topping out in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Generally VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24
hours. The possible exception will be the outside chance of some
patchy fog this morning and again Saturday morning, mainly between
10-14z. However, the majority of the fog is expected to develop
north and inland of area TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure ridging across central Florida and into the eastern
Gulf will shift slightly south on Sunday, then will build back into
the waters Monday and Tuesday. Under this pattern, winds will remain
around 10 knots or less, with rain chances continuing to hold near
zero each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Humidity percentages will drop into the upper 30s over the
interior each of the next couple afternoons, but widespread
critical humidity is not expected. Patchy high dispersion indices
are forecast Saturday afternoon, mainly over the Nature Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  77  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  94  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  96  72  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  89  74  89  74 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  93  66  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  89  77  89  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming