Palm Coast, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

586
FXUS62 KJAX 160552
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 08Z. Low stratus ceilings and fog are expected to advect
across the Suwannee Valley towards the GNV and VQQ terminals after
08Z, with enough confidence in this scenario to indicate
prevailing MVFR visibilities at VQQ towards 09Z and at GNV towards
11Z. We left TEMPO groups for LIFR conditions at VQQ through
around 12Z and for IFR conditions at GNV through around 13Z. Fog
and low stratus could approach JAX after sunrise, but confidence
was too low to indicate sub-VFR conditions at this time.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional
terminals by 14Z. West-southwesterly surface winds will remain
sustained around 5 knots at the inland terminals overnight and
5-10 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals. The Atlantic sea
breeze boundary will develop near the coastal terminals towards
18Z, with surface winds shifting to southeasterly at SGJ and
south-southeasterly at SSI, where sustained speeds will increase
to around 10 knots. The sea breeze may push inland to CRG towards
22Z, where winds will become south-southeasterly briefly before
sunset. West-southwesterly surface winds will otherwise increase
to around 10 knots by 19Z at the rest of the inland terminals,
followed by speeds diminishing to around 5 knots by 06Z Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Tonight: High pressure ridge axis will remain locked in at the
surface with a dry westerly steering flow in the low levels of the
atmosphere, while high pressure ridge also builds in from the West
across the SE US states. There are some high clouds pushing over
the top of this "dirty" ridge and expect enough to call for mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies, but these clouds will remain fairly
thin and will not prevent temps from falling into the mid/upper
60s over inland areas, along with some patchy fog around sunrise
Friday morning, with the HREF still supporting some locally dense
fog along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL between 4am-8am
Friday morning. Otherwise milder along the Atlantic Coastal areas,
with lows in the lower/middle 70s.

Friday...No changes in the local weather pattern as dry and hot
westerly flow will continue with ridge aloft suppressing any
afternoon convection as PWATs remain only around 1 inch, while the
near breezy westerly flow at 10-15G20-25 mph will keep the East
Coast sea breeze pinned at the Atlantic coast allowing for the hot
temps to push all the way to east with near record highs generally
in the middle 90s inland, but some upper 90s possible along the
I-95 corridor, especially in the urban centers with peak heat
indices nudging just over 100F for the first time this year.
Rainfall chances remain around 10 percent or less in this pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday Night through Saturday night)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

It`ll be hot and dry on Saturday across the area as high pressure
sits overhead. With west/southwest winds, high temperatures will
reach the 90s area-wide, including at the immediate Atlantic
coast. Heat indices will not be much higher than actual
temperatures given drier air in place, but they will approach the
upper 90s to near 100 in the afternoon.

Mild low temperatures are forecast Friday and Saturday nights,
only falling into the mid 60s to low 70s. With calm winds
overnight, patchy fog is likely for inland northeast Florida, with
locally dense fog possible near the I-75 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Above average temperatures with highs in the 90s continue through
Wednesday, with mainly dry conditions. A front will sink southward
and lay across central Georgia on Sunday, before lifting back
northward on Monday. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
across southeast Georgia on Sunday as the front sits nearby, but
chances are only at about 15-20% at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

No headlines expected as high pressure ridge axis remains south
of the local waters over the next 5 days, while a weak frontal
boundary will stall well north of the waters over the SE US states
into the Carolinas. This will continue a mostly offshore West to
Southwest flow at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 ft, with a daily
Southeast to South sea breeze development along the NE FL/SE GE
coast each afternoon and evening. A few of the evening nocturnal
southerly surges may come close to 15-20 knots going into the
weekend, but not enough to warrant any headlines with this
afternoon`s forecast package.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Risk into the weekend as
surf/breakers remain in the 1-2 ft range along with a pinned East
Coast sea breeze along the Atlantic Coast each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist through the weekend,
with minRH falling into the 30-35% range Friday. Near record
temperatures and occasionally breezy southwest to west winds
expected into the weekend. Dispersion will be good on Friday, with
high dispersion levels Saturday, especially for Southeast GA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

THU 5/15...JAX 97/1967...CRG 91/1991...GNV 97/1985...AMG 94/1990

FRI 5/16...JAX 96/1995...CRG 94/1994...GNV 98/1896...AMG 95/1990

SAT 5/17...JAX 96/1995...CRG 93/2001...GNV 96/1915...AMG 94/2001

SUN 5/18...JAX 96/1899...CRG 93/2001...GNV 97/1930...AMG 95/2001

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  90  71  93  74 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  97  67  97  70 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  95  69  96  70 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  95  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  94  66  93  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$