Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

280
FXUS62 KJAX 091841
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
241 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected to be ongoing
through the afternoon and early evening over southeast GA, with
more isolated and widely scattered showers and storms for northeast
FL near and north of I-10. The activity will be moving off to the
east and northeast about 20-25 mph, still posing a risk of localized
heavy rainfall and isolated instances of 40-60 mph wind gusts in
the stronger activity. Heaviest rainfall amounts will be over
southeast GA, where storms have more organization there and better
moisture availability and upper level support. Activity will
diminish late evening, but will likely see a resurgence of some
convection toward the early morning hours, with deep southwest
flow in concert with upper level shortwave passing through to
support the chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Lows tonight again above normal in the lower to mid 70s given the
clouds and light southwest flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Enhanced moisture from southwest steering flow in addition to a
cold front sinking southward towards central Georgia Tuesday will
allow for an early start to convection, with numerous showers and
storms likely by the afternoon. The Gulf sea breeze will push far
inland, later interacting with the Atlantic sea breeze near the
I-95 corridor in the late afternoon, highlighting that region
towards the coast for strong storm development. With heavy cloud
cover and morning showers, parts of inland southeast Georgia will
stay in the mid to upper 80s, with highs elsewhere in the lower
90s, even at the northeast Florida coast. Convection will linger
through most of the night as the front stalls over southern
Georgia.

Wednesday, steering flow will become more southerly as the high
pressure weakens, allowing for the sea breeze collision to be more
inland (west of I-95) than Tuesday. With the front still stalled
over southern Georgia, rain chances are high at 60-70% in the
afternoon into evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

High rain and storm chances continue Thursday through the weekend
despite the front lifting northward as south/southeasterly winds
bring plenty of moisture to the area. Sea breeze mergers are
expected inland each afternoon bringing enhanced potential for
strong thunderstorms. Highs inland will be generally in the lower
90s, with the onshore breeze keeping the Atlantic coast a little
cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Scattered convection has recently moved through the JAX Metro
terminals with convection still yet to affect SSI, which may be
in the next 1-3 hours. A few showers and storms near SGJ and GNV
but should largely escape from being adversely affected. By late
evening and toward midnight, most of the convection should remain
to the northwest of the TAFs. Some low stratus again may move into
the TAF sites by 06z-12z Tuesday, but confidence in any MVFR or
IFR is low with probability generally at or below 30 percent. May
see some showers/convection develop by around 15z Tuesday, but
for now given the uncertainty will not include in the latest TAF
set.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

South to southwest winds will increase over most of the waters by
early this evening to about 15-20 kt which will require small
craft exercise caution headlines. Winds should relax toward 10-15
kt Tuesday mid morning. May see another wind increase Tuesday
night, but mainly offshore waters. Wednesday through the rest of
the week, the surface ridge will be nudging up into the local area
which will shift prevailing southwest flow to more southerly
direction, with the Atlantic sea breeze probably forming each
afternoon into the weekend. Otherwise, main weather concerns will
be offshore moving storms the next few days, with instances of
strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall/lowered vsby in stronger
storms.

Rip Currents: low risk of rip currents is currently forecast
through at least Tuesday given the fairly low surf heights of less
than 2 ft and weak easterly swells of less than 1 foot. Some
slightly better swell activity possible later in the week that
may up the rip current risk.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Above normal temps will continue the next few days, with low temps
near or just below record high minimums at a couple of the
climate sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  87  70  89 /  50  80  50  80
SSI  74  88  75  88 /  40  80  60  70
JAX  73  92  73  92 /  10  80  40  80
SGJ  74  92  74  90 /  10  80  40  80
GNV  72  93  73  94 /  10  70  20  90
OCF  73  93  73  93 /  10  80  20  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$