Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

064
FXUS62 KMLB 082354
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
754 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

- Below normal rain chances Today with rain chances increasing
  to normal early next week.

- Hot and very humid conditions with scattered daily
  lightning storms into early next week.

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches
  through the weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Today-Tonight... Mid-level high pressure over Texas will continue to
expand eastward across the Gulf and over the Florida peninsula. At
the surface, high pressure axis will remain draped across central-
south Florida. Locally, SW/W flow will dominate, with the winds
becoming onshore along the coast (models are indicating that Daytona
might not sea breeze, though) in the afternoon with the formation of
the east coast sea breeze. The sea breeze is forecast to remain
pinned along the coast due to the dominate westerly flow. Lower than
normal rain chances will continue, so have blended the much too high
NBM PoPs with CONSAll to lower the rain chances across the local
area. Temperatures aloft are slightly cooler than the past couple of
days (-7 to -8C at 500 mb), and modest lapse rates continue. Thus,
there is a low (20-30 percent) chance for rain and lightning storms
in the afternoon and early evening. Highest potential for storms
will be mainly from Palm Bay to Orlando, where boundary collisions
between the sea breezes and outflow boundaries are forecast to occur
in the late afternoon before pushing offshore through the evening.
Main storm threats will be gusty winds of 30-45 mph (but up to 50
mph will be possible if storms take advantage of the drier air
aloft), occasional to frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall. Hot and humid conditions are forecast once again, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices of 100-
105F. Mostly dry overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Tuesday... Mid-upper level high pressure across the western
Atlantic will build towards the Florida peninsula, with a few mid-
level impulses moving across the north-central Florida. Surface high
pressure across the western Atlantic will weaken as it continues to
push seaward, with the associated ridge axis shifting northward over
north-central Florida. While SW/S winds will continue to dominate,
it will weaken through early week, allowing the east coast sea
breeze to make it farther inland each afternoon. Because of this,
the sea breeze collisions will occur more across the interior in the
afternoon/early evening. Steering flow will remain W/SW on Monday
before weakening and becoming light and variable on Tuesday. NBM
PoPs continue to be way too high, so have blended in CONSAll to
lower PoPs to climatology. Thus, have maintained a low to medium (30-
60 percent) chance for rain and lightning storms each afternoon and
early evening. Greatest potential for storms will be from
Titusville to Orlando to Lake Okeechobee on Monday, and across the
interior on Tuesday (which has the highest coverage of rain/storm
chances), both in the late afternoon and early evening. Temperatures
will remain hot and humid with afternoon highs in upper 80s to low
90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior. Peak
heat indices of 100-105F are forecast. Mostly dry overnight with
lows in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday... The Atlantic mid-level high pressure will
continue to build westward across the Florida peninsula and into the
Gulf through late week and into the weekend. A few mid-level
impulses will traverse across the Florida peninsula through the
period. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic
will remain in place with the associated ridge axis continuing to
shift northward and build across the Florida peninsula/Gulf and the
SE US. S/SE flow will dominate across the local area as the ridge
axis shifts northward and builds over the Florida peninsula. Because
of the onshore flow, the east coast sea breeze will dominate, with
the sea breeze collision occurring across the interior each
afternoon and early evening. The NBM continues to be way too high,
so have blended in CONSAll to lower PoPs to climatology. Thus, have
maintained a medium (40-60 percent) chance for rain and lightning
storms each afternoon and early evening, with Wednesday through
Friday having the highest chance for rain areawide. Light and
variable steering flow on Wednesday will become light and southerly
Thursday through the weekend. The east coast sea breeze will help
keep temperatures slightly cooler, with afternoon highs in the upper
80s to low 90s. Peak heat indices will be 98-105F. Overnight will be
mostly dry with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Today-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Generally favorable
boating conditions are forecast to continue through late-week. The
high pressure ridge will remains across the south-central Florida
peninsula through early week. A brief period of poor boating
conditions is forecast in the far offshore waters north of Sebastian
Inlet tonight and Monday night as south to southwest winds increase
to 15 to 20 kts. Isolated to scattered offshore-moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast each day thru Tuesday evening. South
to southwest flow will "back" southeast along the coast and increase
to 10-15 kts as the east coast sea breeze develops, but remains
pinned close to the coast through early next week. Onshore flow
develops and becomes more dominant Wednesday afternoon thru Thursday
as the ridge axis ventures northward. Scattered onshore moving
showers and storms will be possible each day starting mid-week. Seas
1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Mainly VFR. VCTS around the Orlando terminals continues to
diminish this evening with dry conditions expected overnight.
Light south-southwest winds tonight increase to around 8-10 kts
tomorrow. The east coast sea breeze will develop in the afternoon
shifting winds east-southeast along the coast from MLB southward.
Scattered showers and storms are forecast near I-4 late in the
day, and have included VCTS at ISM/MCO/SFB/DAB after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  94  74  92 /  10  40  20  50
MCO  74  95  75  92 /  10  50  20  60
MLB  74  90  75  89 /  20  30  20  50
VRB  74  91  74  89 /  10  40  20  50
LEE  74  94  75  92 /  10  30  10  60
SFB  74  96  75  94 /  10  40  20  60
ORL  76  95  77  93 /  10  50  20  60
FPR  73  90  74  89 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Law