East Hartford, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS61 KBOX 160641
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
241 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening low pressure will bring scattered showers or thunderstorms
at times through the end of the week as it reaches New England, but
a majority of the time will be dry. Scattered showers or
thunderstorms will be a possibility to start the weekend before a
cooling trend and drier conditions move into the region to start
next week. Unsettled weather returns mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Isolated to widely scattered aftn showers/t-storms this
  afternoon, some which may contain a localized heavy-downpour
  risk.

* Low clouds and areas of fog overnight, locally dense in some
  location.

Details:

Radar this afternoon (2:30PM) shows scattered convective showers
and a few storms developing from the south pushing northward
across RI, CT, and mainly central MA. Expect this to continue
through the afternoon hours. There is plenty of moisture around
with around 1.2-1.4" of precipitable water across southern New
England and marginal elevated instability. Given the warm cloud
depths and skinny CAPE sounding profiles, there is still a risk
for a storm or two to be capable of localized heavy rainfall.
Showers and storms decrease this evening.

Main event for tonight will be the low stratus and fog. The
moist airmass, warm temperatures aloft, and calm winds will
support development of areas of fog and low stratus tonight.
Impacts will be lowered visibilities to as low as 1/2 to 1/4 of
a mile in localized spots tonight through early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Gradual clear of low clouds and fog Friday morning through
   the afternoon.

* Potential for scattered showers and storms in the afternoon,
  with the higher chances for western and central MA.


Details:

Friday morning will start with low clouds and areas of fog.
Subtle height rises work into the region in the morning which
will help bring breaks in the clouds in the afternoon. The Cape
and Islands will likely be slower to improve than the interior. Model
soundings show gradual improvements after 8 AM Friday morning
with further improvements in the afternoon. As clouds break,
we`ll get more sunshine in that timeframe which will help build
a bit more instability, mainly across western MA along with help
of the approaching front to bring weak lift. Will a moist
airmass prevailing, this will support scattered showers and
storms in the afternoon, with the higher chances for western MA,
central MA, and parts of CT. A few stray showers or storms may
move into central and northeast MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...

* A round of strong to severe storms expected on Saturday afternoon
  and evening.

* Drier and cooler to start next week followed by more unsettled
  weather.

A mid level trough and surface low digging into the Great Lakes on
Saturday will bring a round of strong to severe storms to southern
New England Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this system a
warm front moves north and brings dewpoints well into the 60s by
Saturday afternoon on warm and moist southerly flow. This will make
for a warm (upper 70s to near 80) and relatively humid day on
Saturday and help to generate a good amount of instability in the
warm sector, on the order of 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE. A stout
inversion around 900 mb looks to keep the majority of convection
elevated, but as the cold front approaches there is potential to
break that cap, especially northwestern/interior SNE where the
strongest instability lies. Meanwhile, 0-6 km bulk shear around 25-
30 kts would be enough to prolong some of the updrafts and allow for
a few strong to severe storms, of which the main threat would be
damaging winds and secondarily large hail. However, 0-1km shear (25-
30kts) and 0-1km helicity (~150m2s2) are enough to mention a non
zero chance of a tornado in western MA. While CSU machine learning
probs of severe weather have decreased a bit in the last 24 hours,
they continue to indicate a 2-5% chance for tornadoes, 5-30% chance
of severe wind, and 5-15% chance of severe hail. The SREF also
indicates a 20-50% chance of overlapping 500+ J/kg CAPE with 30+kts
0-6 bulk shear. This is a good indicator of chance of severe
weather. We`re just getting into the hi-res guidance at this point,
but timing-wise the storms look to move through from west to east,
generally noon to 8PM. So, Saturday shouldn`t be a washout but
expect generally a 3-4 hour period of showers and storms at any one
location.

The cold front then sweeps through Saturday night so Sunday will
feel cooler (upper 60s and low 70s) and less humid with dewpoints
back in the 40s and low 50s. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with
scattered diurnal showers thanks to the cold pool aloft and slow to
exit low. Mid level ridging then pushes in with weak surface high
pressure to start the week so we`ll see slightly more sun and mostly
dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. However, uncertainty is higher,
especially as we get into Tuesday and mid week; a nearby mid level
system over eastern Canada may be in close enough proximity to bring
some scattered showers Tuesday. This is followed by signs of a
deeper, move organized low bringing more widespread rain to the
region mid week into the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z Friday: High confidence overall, but lower to
moderate on areal extent of fog.

IFR-LIFR in at least stratus, although areas VLIFR visby in
dense fog mainly along south-coastal/Cape airports. Visbys could
stay around MVFR-IFR range in BR away from the waters. Light S
winds.

Today: Moderate confidence.

IFR-LIFR stratus/fog scatters to MVFR-VFR range 13-15z, although
IFR likely to continue most of if not all day along the South
Coast, Cape Cod airports. Isolated to widely SCT SHRA/TS mainly
near and northwest of a BDL-ORH line, timing uncertain but
thinking no sooner than 17z, activity ending closer to or just
after sundown. Light S winds, with potential for seabreeze at
BOS as low ceilings scatter out around 15-17z.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

IFR-LIFR ceilings and visbys return from the coastal waters.
Should be mostly dry, but lower prob of SHRA/TS after 09z over
southwestern areas.

Saturday: Moderate confidence overall, but low on timing both
sub-VFR improvement and on timing SHRA/TS.

IFR-LIFR stratus likely to begin Sat, but it is uncertain if
and when we see any improvement. Leaned toward MVFR-VFR by late
morning but that could be optimistic, especially east of ORH.
Couple rounds of TS possible, potentially as early as 12-13z
and with another round that would mostly be focused for western
airports after 17z. Some storms could become strong, with a
better chance for strong activity in the 2nd round of storms for
BAF- BDL- ORH. Winds mainly SE to S around 5-10 kt.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. IFR ceilings could trend LIFR as
we move toward daybreak, then scattering out around 14-15z to
MVFR-VFR categories. Seabreeze possible as soon as 15z once
stratus disperses, which would continue til 23z.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR should disperse to
VFR bases around 14z. PROB30 for ISO/SCT TS after 17z, the TS
risk ending around 00z.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence overall.

E/SE winds remain below SCA levels tonight and Fri. Seas will
contineu to diminish. Areas of marine fog develop tonight and
could linger into a good part of Fri, returning Friday night.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kts. Seas 2-4 ft. Scattered showers
and storms on southern waters moving from west to east in the
afternoon and evening.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin