Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

567
FXUS65 KGJT 160527
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1127 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms
  will continue through this evening with showers lingering over
  the northern mountains through Friday morning. Conditions
  could be slick over the higher passes overnight.

- A gradual warming and drying trend kicks in for Friday and
  Saturday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible this
  weekend as winds increase ahead of the next storm.

- Cooler, wetter, and unsettled conditions return Sunday into
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

A last remnant shortwave is tracking across the CWA today as we
are still under the influence of this upper level trough even
though the low center has moved out into the northern High
Plains (Dakotas). We are currently seeing scattered to
widespread instability showers with a few isolated lightning
strikes here and there. This is once again allowing for breezy
conditions with gusts in the 30s and light rainfall if any. We
are already about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday despite the
clouds and showers. The high elevations mainly above 9,000 feet
across the northern and central mountains could see 2 to 4
inches by Friday morning as this shortwave passes with most
shower activity coming to an end after midnight tonight with the
convection aspect dying off with the loss of daytime heating
but orographic showers should still continue into Friday morning
across the northern Divide as the back edge of this shortwave
trough moves through. Again, there could be some slick
conditions at the higher passes so even though it`s mid May,
caution should still be exercised if traveling over these
mountain corridors.

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool as last night given
warm air advection beginning to take place, although we could
see some pockets of below freezing temps across the southern and
northern valleys. The areal coverage and duration of these
freezing temps does not appear widespread or long enough to
warrant Freeze highlights as it will be more localized so opted
not to issue any Freeze Warning for tonight.

By Friday, highs should see a bump up by about 6 to 8 degrees
across the entire area with less coverage of showers. Showers
still will be limited to the northern mountains as we see some
remnants of instability and moisture but conditions should be
drying out from the southwest with highs near to 5 degrees below
normal. Overall, Friday afternoon appears to be a pleasant
Spring day for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

On Saturday, the first of two low pressure systems will track
over the Great Basin. As a result winds increase with gust in
the afternoon ranging from 25-35 mph. There will be enough
moisture for showers in the northern mountains, but most valleys
stay dry. In fact, southern portions of the forecast area will
have elevated fire weather where fuels are critical. On Sunday,
the first shortwave tracks overhead and a cold front sweeps
through the region. Scattered to widespread showers are expected
most of the day. Wind gusts increase with speeds upwards of 40
mph. Cooler and unsettled conditions set up shop from Sunday
night onward, as models are coming into increasing agreement
that troughing will remain over the Intermountain West through
the middle part of next week. As the first trough swings east of
the Divide Sunday night, a closed low drops out of the Pacific
Northwest to swing through the Four Corners. This will keep
showers going through the day Monday, particularly south of the
I-70 corridor. Another low develops over Wyoming that will bring
some wrap-around precipitation to the north on Tuesday, in
addition to orographic showers in the post-trough northwesterly
flow. While model agreement is pretty good through this point,
it wouldn`t take much of a change in the location of that
southerly low for the Western Slope to be left high and dry. So
watch this space. A quieter and warmer pattern looks to set up
for the second half of next week, with a return to above normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Showers continue to track across northwest Colorado and
northeast Utah this evening, bringing occasional drops to
MVFR/IFR conditions to TAF sites they pass over. These showers
will diminish in the next 2-4 hours, though mid level clouds are
expected to linger through the night. Shower coverage will be
much less tomorrow afternoon, though terminals close to the
Wyoming border, including KVEL and KHDN, will see a low end
potential to see a shower or two. Winds will once again be gusty
tomorrow afternoon, though gusts are only expected up to around
20 knots. VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT