Inverness, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

263
FXUS66 KMTR 240507
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1007 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 142 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

Breezy onshore winds and seasonal temperatures continue through
midweek. Above normal temperatures are likely to return next
weekend across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

A subtle upper level trough continues to progress through the
region. This will help the marine layer to deepen to around 2000ft
tonight and bring more widespread low level stratus to the Bay Area
and Central Coast. Breezy winds, particularly across the marine
environment, coast, and elevated terrain, will continue into the
weekend and peak between 20 to 25 mph. Locally higher gusts to
around 30 mph are possible in areas where funneling is favored (for
example, Altamont Pass). High temperatures on Saturday remain
similar to those on Friday with highs in the 70s across the interior
and 50s to 60s along the coast. Favored hot spots (portions of the
North Bay and far eastern Contra Costa/Alameda Counties) may reach
the low 80s. In terms of fire weather, conditions have improved in
comparison to yesterday given winds easing across the region and the
marine layer deepening. However, it is still important to be aware
and take precautions this weekend if utilizing any sort of flame
outdoors. Winds will still be breezy in the afternoon and many of
our smaller fuels (ie. grasses) have cured. While our overall risk
is lower, grass fires can still develop and spread particularly if
the proper precautions are not taken for campfires or other outdoors
activities. If you are heading to the beach this weekend - marine
conditions will be hazardous for small crafts due to northwesterly
winds gusting between 25 to 40 mph across the waters. Additionally,
recent buoy observations show ocean temperatures are in the low to
mid 50s. Water temperatures that cold can incapacitate even the most
experienced swimmer in minutes and may make self rescue nearly
impossible. In order to prevent this, make sure to take the
necessary safety precautions if going in the water.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

Shortwave upper level ridging builds in on Sunday before another
weak upper level disturbance and associated weak surface cold front
pass through Tuesday. Longwave upper level ridging will then build
in Wednesday through late week with a potential cut-off low
developing offshore of CA. The placement of this cut-off low will be
more impactful for next weekends weather (end of May/beginning of
June) which we will discuss shortly. Sunday through Monday -
temperatures will hold fairly steady in the 50s to 60s along the
coast and 70s across the interior. Temperatures warm on Tuesday into
the mid 70s to low 80s across the interior before dropping a few
degrees (2-4 degrees) on Wednesday after a weak cold front moves
through. As longwave ridging builds in, temperatures will start to
increase Thursday into next weekend. There is some uncertainty as to
if temperatures will start to increase more Wednesday vs Thursday
due to the aforementioned cut-off low. The ECMWF shows this cut-off
low staying offshore and moving inland over southern CA which would
help keep our CWA slightly cooler. In comparison, the GFS shows this
cut-off low pushing in over the Central Coast with offshore winds
more likely in this scenario. The scenario proposed by the GFS would
support warmer temperatures with the NBM showing a wide range of
possible temperatures between the 10th and 90th percentiles (70s vs
upper 90s to low 100s). This event is still almost a week away so
forecast confidence is likely to increase over the next couple of
days. With this in mind, take advantage of the relatively seasonal
weather we have this week before warmer weather returns next weekend
and we enter the summer months. As we enter the dry season, remember

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

The status of the stratus is that it is coming at us, well some of
us that is. Satellite imagery this evening shows stratus filling in
along the coasts of the Bay Area and Central Coast, and even
infiltrating into San Francisco Bay. Expect this will continue to
and bring mainly MVFR to perhaps IFR cigs tonight for terminals
along the Monterey Bay and KSFO, KOAK, and KHAF. East Bay terminals
have a decent shot of observing MVFR cigs later this morning, while
South Bay and North Bay terminals are a little less certain. Given
we some some observed lower cloud or reduced cigs, opted to keep the
trend of MVFR cigs in the North Bay. Expect the stratus to recede
mid to late morning for most of these sites, and likely stay glued
around KHAF and KMRY.


Vicinity of SFO...Stratus never really left us, leaving us a period
of VFR cigs over the ASOS, while webcams showed more cloud to the
west. Now we are currently at MVFR with BKN015 at KSFO and the
question becomes, will we fall into IFR? Pushed IFR conditions off
by a few hours but confidence has started to falter given cigs to
our west haven`t dipped. Will need to keep an eye on it and adjust
the TAFs accordingly. Expect to see SFO trend similarly to what we
observed today (Friday) with stratus hang around the vicnity.
Stratus look, which was trended towards in this updates to return
Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...As expected, MVFR cigs have prevailed
around the southern portion of the Monterey Bay area and is
spreading inland in many directions. IFR cigs will be possible
tonight, likely falling within the next few hours. Guidance
continues to suggests KMRY remains socked in with MVFR to IFR cigs
all day. Uncertainty remains at KSNS and areas inland or north,
where there could be some clearing by late morning or early
afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 902 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

Fresh north to northwest breezes with strong to near gale force
gusts are expected through tonight and fresh to to strong gusts on
Saturday. Expect hazardous marine conditions across the waters
through the weekend and early into next as rough and hazardous
seas linger.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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