Van Buren, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

987
FXUS64 KTSA 160755
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

  - Shower and thunderstorm chances for far eastern/southeast OK
    into northwest AR through mid afternoon today.

  - An unsettled weather pattern continues through the weekend and
    into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are expected at
    times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

An active pattern continues across the region today, with shower
and thunderstorm chances increasing this morning and afternoon
across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A warm
front has begun lifting northward across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas early this morning as a surface low develops and
moves across southern Kansas through the day today. A subtle mid
level disturbance, trailing the main synoptic wave over the
Midwest, will also track across the Central Plains and into the
Mid Mississippi Valley by late afternoon. As rich low level
moisture surges back northward this morning behind the advancing
warm front, it will interact with the approaching wave and some
thunderstorm development is expected over far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas by mid morning this morning. Coverage is
expected to be minimal with this activity due to slowly eroding
mid level capping in place. Still, steep mid level lapse rates and
robust shear would support severe convection with any storms that
do develop in this zone this morning. Large hail will be the
primary concern, though all hazards are in play.

These storms will race off to the northeast, likely exiting the
forecast area by midday. Attention will then turn to the afternoon
as the surface boundary pushes back east and southeast with the
passing mid level trough axis. Additional robust thunderstorm
development is progged along the boundary by mid afternoon. This
will likely be right on the eastern fringes of our forecast area,
but a short period of severe thunderstorms will be possible,
mainly across western Arkansas before the boundary pushes to the
east. Storms should be well east of the forecast area by late
afternoon with breezy westerly winds following the boundary.
Elsewhere, today will be another warm day, with highs mainly in
the mid to upper 80s and gusty winds by afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Drier air will push into the area for tonight into Saturday
morning, with a lull in any thunderstorm activity through the
morning hours on Saturday. This will be short lived however as
moisture once again lifts back north in response to Lee
cyclogenesis ahead of the main upper level storm system digging
into the Desert Southwest. This will begin a period of increasing
thunderstorm chances from Saturday afternoon through Monday and
possibly into Tuesday. While the specific details are still to be
determined and will be highly depended on previous days activity,
expect periods of thunderstorms through the weekend as modest
southwest flow aloft overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable
airmass. Severe thunderstorms will be possible each day, with all
hazards in play depending on timing and location of relevant
features. As it stands now, thunderstorm chances will increase
across eastern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening as the warm
front lifts northward. Another round of storms is expected into
Sunday afternoon and evening as storms develop off a dryline over
western/central Oklahoma. The main storm system begins to move
into the Plains on Monday ,providing what is likely the most
likely day to see more widespread severe thunderstorms across the
region. Storms could linger into Tuesday as the slow moving
trough axis slides through the area before departing to the east
and pushing a rather strong cold front through the area.

Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the frontal boundary
with noticeably cooler temperatures progged for the rest of the
work week. Lows could even dip into the 40s a couple of nights
next week with highs mainly in the 70s. Low shower/storm chances
enter the forecast again by the end of the week and into next
weekend as northwest flow aloft strengthens over the Plains.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Largely quiet with VFR conditions prevailing thru the night.
There`s a low chance for an isolated shower or storm near KFSM
over the next couple of hours, so have inserted prob30 mention
there. A period of MVFR cigs in the low lvl moisture return is
expected from SE OK into NW AR btwn 12 and 18Z. In addition, the
latest CAMs suggest that some elevated storms could develop during
this time across far NW AR. The going forecast had this covered
with a prob30 mention and have elected to go with tempo mention
given good model run-to-run consistency. VFR conditions and
clearing skies will prevail aft 18Z. Gusty SW to W winds by mid-
morning Friday will gradually become WNW by late in the day and
subside.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  57  83  64 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  63  88  68 /  30   0  10  50
MLC   88  61  87  66 /  10   0  30  40
BVO   85  51  81  60 /   0   0   0  50
FYV   85  57  85  63 /  40   0  10  60
BYV   84  57  84  61 /  40   0  10  60
MKO   86  57  84  64 /  10   0  20  40
MIO   83  53  80  61 /  10   0  10  60
F10   87  58  84  64 /  10   0  20  40
HHW   87  64  86  67 /  20  10  40  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30