Texarkana, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

832
FXUS64 KSHV 160505
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1205 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Mostly cloudy skies remain this evening, as clouds continue to
stream in along the southwesterly flow aloft over the region. In
the extreme northwestern portion of the forecast area, generally
across Northwest McCurtain County Oklahoma, a frontal boundary has
remained stalled for most of the day. We had a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop along that boundary earlier, but
things are much quieter this evening. Radar does show some returns
near that boundary, but nearby observations indicate that most of
that is likely not reaching the ground. As we move into the
evening and overnight hours, some short-term progs suggest a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop near the
boundary, generally across McCurtain County and portions of SW
Arkansas north of Interstate 30. So, decided to keep POPs in those
areas to account for this. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies
to remain areawide. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s
north of the front to the low to mid 70s across the remainder of
the region. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

While a low pressure system is impacting the Great Lakes Region,
an associated cold front has become quasi-stationary just
northwest of the region. We have seen some rain and thunderstorms
develop along this boundary this afternoon, which has stayed
sub severe in intensity so far. The concern in previous packages
has been the strength in the cap, as seen from the KSHV 12z
sounding this morning. RAP analysis has shown some decay in the
cap through the day, but we have yet to know if it will be enough
for future storms to take advantage of the favorable environment
and become severe. Either way, the rain showers will continue to
be possible in our far northern zones through the evening and
into the overnight hours before the cold front mixes out early
Friday morning. The continued cloud cover and elevated surface
winds will help keep the regional lows tonight firmly in the 70s.

Friday will bring similar conditions to the Ark-La-Tx: warm
temperatures and a favorable environment for evening storms, but
some uncertainty on if anything will be able to initiate. Short
and medium-range guidance has been inconsistent on this front,
mainly due to the overall lack of decent low-level forcing.
Despite the uncertainty, SPC has a slight risk of severe weather
north of a line stretching from north of Monroe to south of Tyler
on Friday. This risk is primarily for large hail and damaging
winds from storms that are able to initiate and tap in to the
environmental moisture and instability. There is also a chance of
flash flooding in portions of southern AR with these storms. Rain
may continue to impact the northern half of the area overnight
Friday, but severe potential should drop off with the progression
of upper-level support. /57/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

More upper-level perturbations will move through the Four State
Region and bring continued chances of showers and storms through
late Sunday, when the upper-level ridge sitting over the area
is able to amplify. This could provide a brief reprieve in the
unsettled weather on Monday, but there is still a chance of
isolated rain showers breaking through the weak part of the ridge.

Tuesday will likely bring more widespread severe weather to the
area, as models are already beginning to find points of agreement
in the setup. A closed low is expected to propagate eastward
toward the Central Plains on Tuesday and bring a cold front with
it. That front, in combination with a potential Texas dryline,
would be the focus of severe weather. There is still some
uncertainties on the event, but SPC has already highlighted the
northwestern fourth of the CWA as having a 15% chance of severe
development on Tuesday. The system should continue eastward out of
the region by Wednesday, and reward us with slightly cooler
temperatures for the rest of the week. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Starting the TAF period with VFR conditions but that will be
temporary with widespread MVFR ceilings expanding northward from
SE TX/S LA overnight towards sunrise this morning. Those MVFR
ceilings will quickly scatter out and/or become low VFR ceilings
with plenty of mid and high clouds above these ascending lower
ceilings. Did introduce VCTS to the TYR/TXK terminals only by
17/00z this evening to account for upstream convection perhaps
impacting our far western and northwestern terminals towards the
tail end of the TAF period. Look for S so SSW winds by mid
morning through the late afternoon hours sustained near 10-14kts
with gusts upwards of 25kts until they decouple after 17/00z.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this
evening northwest of the Interstate 30 corridor of extreme
Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, should
any isolated storms develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  92  74  94 /  30  20  30  10
MLU  75  94  73  93 /  30  20  30  10
DEQ  65  89  68  87 /  20  30  40  30
TXK  71  92  72  91 /  40  30  40  20
ELD  69  92  68  92 /  50  30  40  20
TYR  73  91  72  92 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  71  92 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  75  94  73  94 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...13