Blytheville, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

896
FXUS64 KMEG 081758
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

- The next round of thunderstorms will arrive late tonight.
  Damaging winds are the primary concern through sunrise.

- Additional severe storms are anticipated Monday afternoon near the
  Tennessee River. A Slight Risk for severe storms is in place
  with damaging winds and large hail the primary concerns.

- Dry and seasonable temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday.
  The end of the work week will feature additional chances for
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

An interesting weather pattern will impact the Mid-South today,
characterized by two frontal passages and severe weather chances.

A weak cold front continues to move southeast as of 3AM. Recent
surface observations already depict northwesterly winds in areas
of eastern Arkansas. Unfortunately, this front will bring little
relief from the heat and humidity as it dies out over northern
Mississippi later this morning. Today`s dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Elsewhere in CONUS, a large cut-off low will sink into the Great
Lakes Region by midday and eject a cold front towards the Mid-
South. This feature will become the main focus for additional
severe storms late tonight into Monday morning. An ongoing MCS
will approach the Mid-South between the 2AM to 5AM hour tonight.
However, evolution of this complex as it crosses into the Mid-
South remains hard to pinpoint. The latest CAMs remain in large
disagreement on timing and precise location of these storms.
Furthermore, the 06Z HRRR keeps severe weather out of the Mid-
South completely. Regardless of which scenario pans out, it is
important to note that appreciable CIN will be in place by the
time storms reach our area. This will hamper upscale storm growth,
and likely lead to a weakening trend as storms move east of the
Mississippi River. Initial storms moving into eastern Arkansas
may pose a damaging wind threat.

A secondary round of severe weather is anticipated Monday as
diurnal trends improve the convective environment over the Mid-
South. By midday, SBCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg as bulk shear
remains around 25 kts. While shear is lacking, the abundance of
CAPE will allow for a conditional threat of damaging winds within
storms. The greatest corridor for additional severe storm
development on Monday exists in an area stretching from the
Tennessee River southwest into northeast Mississippi. This is
represented well in the Storm Prediction Center`s Slight Risk
(2/5) for Monday. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
concerns.

Both the GFS and ECMWF now favor a more progressive front that
pushes well into Mississippi. As such, this will place the Mid-
South in a fair and pleasant weather pattern characterized by
normal temperatures. Unfortunately, this more dry and seasonable
pattern will not last as a cut-off low approaches the region on
Thursday. Thunderstorm chances return to end the work week.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The rest of the day through the overnight period looks completely
dry. There will be a frontal passage tomorrow morning with a
relatively messy convective mode ahead of the front. For now,
opted to keep the PROB30s at all sites except JBR given the lack
of agreement in the CAMs. Will say that there looks to be an
initial wave shortly after 12Z Monday and then maybe a final push
of convection around 18Z with the FROPA, which is the reasoning
behind such a long period of prevailing precip and VCTS. Ceilings
don`t look particularly low save for brief downpours, so expect
mostly VFR for all sites. Winds will gradually shift around to the
west and eventually north throughout the day tomorrow.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD