Sun City West, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

988
FXUS65 KPSR 061216
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
516 AM MST Fri Jun 6 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot and dry conditions are expected to increase into next week
  with lower desert temperatures peaking around 110 degrees on
  Sunday and Monday

- Widespread areas of Moderate HeatRisk expected starting
  Saturday, lasting through the middle of next week

Current WV imagery shows troughing in the Southeastern Pacific that
is channeling drier air into the region from the SW. This influx of
dry air will continue to scour out the anomalously high PWAT values
going into this weekend. The dry air will also help facilitate
gradual warming of temperatures over the next several days, with
today expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.

Current longwave troughing across the Desert SW will begin to weaken
and retrograde in the Southeastern Pacific as ridging begins to
build in the Pacific Northwest creating a Rex Block pattern over
Western CONUS going into the weekend. Subtropical ridging centered
over northern Mexico/southern Texas will migrates westward helping
build the 500mb heights over the next several days over the Desert
SW. With this pattern change, we can start to see temperatures climb
several degrees above normal by the start of the weekend. By Sunday-
Monday time frame 500mb heights will continue to build, peaking near
588-591 dm. This will lead to high temperatures across the lower
deserts between 106-111 degrees, 4-8 degrees above normal.
Probabilities of reaching 110 or above starting Sunday are notably
higher in southeastern CA and along the Lower Colorado River Valley,
peaking on Monday with a 40-70% chance, while the Phoenix area is
around a 30-50% chance. Due to these increased temperatures,
widespread Moderate HeatRisk will develop starting Saturday and
will continue through the middle of next week.

The subtropical ridge will continue to retrograde westward through
the middle of next week and this will lead to the temperatures
cooling slightly as 500mb heights begin to weaken. By late next week
ensembles are hinting at another troughing feature through
Western CONUS which can cause temperatures to cool back to near
normal levels. The ensembles are generally in good agreement
through the end of next week, with any notable differences being
how amplified this trough becomes. Regardless of these
differences, the NBM interquartile ranges suggest the region will
be back towards near normal by this time, with the temperature
spreads being only a few degrees apart. Dry conditions will
continue to persist through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1215Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
No major weather issues should exist through Friday evening with
prevailing SKC sky conditions. Either light and variable or a
light easterly component wind will transition back to W slightly
earlier today (17-18Z), with periods of variability during the
transition late this morning and into the early afternoon hours
and again late tonight as well. Wind speeds will generally stay
at or below 8 kts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No significant weather concerns will exist through tonight with
prevailing SKC sky conditions. S/SE wind directions will be
favored through the period with some variability and brief SW
directional shifts possible. Confidence is good that speeds will
primarily remain below 10kt, however could increase closer to 15kt
at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drying conditions and hotter temperatures are expected into the
weekend. Afternoon MinRHs will decrease from 10-15% today to
7-12% by Saturday as lower desert high temperatures increase into
the lower triple digits, which is near normal for this time of
year. Overnight RHs will also decrease to 25-35% tonight for most
places bottoming out Sunday night into Monday at 15-30%. Winds
should follow fairly typical diurnal tendencies with periodic
afternoon upslope gustiness. The dry weather pattern is expected
to continue into early next week with temperatures running 5-10
degrees above normal and daily MinRHs mostly in a 5-10% range.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ryan
AVIATION...Young/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Smith