Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

672
FXUS65 KFGZ 160500
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1000 PM MST Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures continue on Friday with cooler weather
returning over the weekend and into early next week. A storm system
over the weekend and into Monday will bring chances for showers and
gusty southwest winds.

&&

.UPDATE...The current forecast remains in good shape. Look for
fair weather overnight with a near repeat of Thursday`s weather on
Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /558 PM MST/...Friday...Dry conditions continue with
near average temperatures expected. Winds will be primarily out
of the west to southwest and around 5-15 mph with afternoon gusts
around 20-25 mph.

Saturday through Monday...A deepening trough across the Great Basin
will bring increasing winds through the weekend. The winds on
Saturday will increase out of the southwest to 10-20 mph with gusts
25-35 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Sunday.
It will still be fairly dry on Saturday, and with the very dry
conditions across eastern parts of the forecast area, we could see
some fire weather concerns. The strongest winds look to be more over
western and northern areas while the driest conditions look to be
over eastern areas. Still looks marginal but near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are expected. The approaching
trough will drag in some cooler air on Saturday as a cold front
moves through but the colder air arrives for Sunday and Monday as
the trough redevelops on the western side and dives down through the
state. We should also see moisture increasing on Sunday which may
allow for some showers and isolated thunderstorms (even some snow
showers across the higher elevations) late Saturday through Sunday.
Areas along and north of the I-40 corridor look to have the best
chances for a shower. The increasing moisture should help to tamp
down the fire weather concerns. Though the southern portions of
Apache and Navajo counties will still have near critical conditions
as winds will be gustier on Sunday. As the secondary trough pushes
into the region, we will see another influx of moisture to the
region and more chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially
along and north of the Mogollon Rim. An active start to the week for
sure.

As the second trough exits the region late Monday, we should see a
rather quick recovery across the state. Temperatures will warm to
near average by midweek and then 5-10 degrees above average for the
second half of the week. Winds are expected to become lighter
through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 16/06Z through Saturday 17/06Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected, smoke could reduce
visibility near and downwind of Greer (east Arizona) and Blind
fires (SE of KLFG). Winds light and variable or terrain driven
over night, becoming SW 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts between 15-18Z
Friday. Becoming light and variable after 03Z Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/06Z through Monday 19/06Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected until 12Z Sunday, mainly north of I-40,
then scattered rain showers. Smoke could reduce visibility near
and downwind of wildfires. Winds Saturday SW 15-20kts, gusts to
30kts. On Sunday winds increase SW 20-25kts, gusts to 40kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday through Saturday...Dry conditions will
continue with minimum RH values mostly below 15%. Southwest to west
afternoon winds 10 to 20 MPH Friday. Southwest winds increase on
Saturday 15 to 20 mph gusting between 25 and 35 mph. Near critical
fire weather possible Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Cooler, windy, and chances for showers on
Sunday and Monday. Southwest winds 15-20 mph gusting between 30 and
40 mph on Sunday, becoming lighter westerly winds on Monday. Warmer,
less wind, and drier on Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff