Mill Bay, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

444
FXAK68 PAFC 160026
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKDT Thu May 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weakening low pressure system in the northern Gulf of Alaska has
sent a now deteriorating front into Southcentral this morning.
Gusty winds through Shelikof and Turnagain Arm from this front
will be diminishing this evening. Precipitation from this system
is mainly along the Gulf coast and windward sides of the coastal
mountains. The inland and leeward sides of the mountains will
remain drier, though there was still enough lift along the front
to bring some rain to Anchorage and parts of the western Kenai
Peninsula and the southern Susitna Valley this morning. For this
afternoon and evening, the cross-barrier flow should cut-off most
of the remaining moisture as the lifting along the front
continues to weaken.

After today, the weather across Southcentral looks rather benign
as we head into the weekend. For Friday and Saturday, the upper
level flow is quite weak with residual moisture across the region
keeping skies mostly cloudy. Breaks in the clouds, especially
near snow-free mountain slopes could produce enough heating for
afternoon and evening showers. But without overly cold air aloft,
the instability will be limited and so should be the extent of
showers. By Saturday, the low may organize a second moisture push
into the coast, promoting more widespread light rainfall in-lieu
of showers, but generally still a persistent pattern.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The low off the Bristol Bay coast is slowly weakening this afternoon
with gusty gap flow winds gradually decreasing through tonight. The
low will retrograde slightly back to the west, but still having
enough of an influence for lingering scattered showers over portions
of the AKPEN and Bristol Bay region. Steady easterly, downslope
winds should erode much of the showers as they move towards the
Kuskokwim Delta. Meanwhile, back to the west...the other Bering low
will weaken into an open wave as it crosses the western Aleutian
Islands. The southern-most axis of the trough will quickly drop
south into the North Pacific and deepen into a new upper low on
Friday. An upper ridge will start to work into the western Aleutians
and Bering Sea. The ridge will be fairly transient as it pushes to
the southeast through Sunday. A Kamchatka low will race towards the
far western Aleutians on Saturday bringing a period of gusty winds
Saturday afternoon.

- PP

&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A broad upper level trough with multiple centers moving through
the pattern continues its hold on the Alaska weather picture. The
main portion of the low centers over the Bering. A weaker trough
extending from a Arctic low moves across the Bering into the
Central Mainland, but does not contribute to larger scale weather
features. A number of shortwaves ripple across the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska through the forecast
period. The GFS and ECMWF maintain decent agreement throughout the
large scale but yields uncertainty to the transient details.

Sporadic showers are expected across most of Interior Alaska
through the week. A well developed surface low brings areas of
moderate rain into the Western Aleutians and Bering beginning
Monday. The low center crowds the Aleutians as it moves into the
AKPEN through Thursday. Gusty winds move over the Western and
Central Aleutians with the low`s passage, diminishing late
Wednesday as the low moves to the South of Kodiak Island. A second
North Pacific low moves moderate to heavy rain into the Western
Aleutians and Bering for Thursday.

- Kutz


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A
Turnagain Arm wind will redevelop late this afternoon, bringing
southeasterly winds up to 20 kts to the terminal through the
evening hours. Light and variable winds will return to PANC
tonight through Friday morning.

&&


$$