Tuscaloosa, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

931
FXUS64 KBMX 160646
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
146 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

 - There is a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday night into
   Saturday morning across the northern portions of Central
   Alabama and then again late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
   evening across much of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and
   large hail are the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will lead to southwest low and
mid level flow prevailing and bringing plenty of moisture to the
state. Today, the area should remain mostly rain free with plenty
of low level moisture keeping mostly cloudy skies through the
morning and early afternoon. High temperatures will be at or a
degree above the temperatures Thursday, in the upper 80s and lower
90s.

Tonight, a frontal boundary will approach the area, moving from
north to south through the state through the morning. CAMs are
showing the convection beginning in the northwestern counties
around midnight, if not slightly after, and then reaching the
middle of the state by sunrise and 7 am. There is some
uncertainty as to how much coverage this front will produce, and
how quickly the convection will make it`s way into the state.
Though with the parameters expected, severe thunderstorms are
possible in any cell.

Instabilities are between 1500-2000 J/kg, with DCAPE values
anywhere between 500 and 700 J/kg. LI values will be roughly -4,
with PW values in the 90th percentile to max for this time of
year. The soundings show decent dry air in the low and mid levels,
and with the moisture and anticipated evaporation/cooling aloft,
will forecast a decent chance for damaging winds in any strong thunderstorms.
Large hail will also be a possibility, especially in the cells
along the front that have more lift.

As the front moves south, models show a general decrease in
coverage, though models haven`t been stellar in any accurate
depiction of coverage lately. Would expect activity to continue
through mid morning, with a slow decrease in the damaging
wind/hail potential as the lift weakens. There should be a break
through the late morning and early afternoon before isolated to
scattered diurnal convection develops along the boundary left by
that front. Uncertainty remains in how much activity actually
remains through the morning, and how much clearing can be expected
that would allow for plenty of heating and instability for the
afternoon activity.

For these storms, instabilities will be higher, around 3000-3500
J/kg, especially in the west and southwestern areas of the state.
These storms could also produce damaging winds/large hail, though
the PW values should be slightly less. The afternoon activity will
be more conditional, and for now will maintain the level 1 of 5
risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire area.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025

No major changes were made to the grids. Only a minor change was
made to the severe timing for pre-dawn hours early Saturday as
the storms could arrive a tad sooner, so we bumped up the start
time for severe potential from 3am to 1am. Otherwise, all other
thinking is similar.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025

A low pressure will deepen and move over the Ohio Valley, with a
frontal boundary moving into the area Friday night through
Saturday evening. Rain and thunderstorms could move into the
northwestern counties after midnight, with activity increasing in
coverage by mid morning. As the front sags south, most of the area
should see showers and thunderstorms by the early afternoon,
continuing through the evening. Instabilities are high, with 3000
J/kg plus forecasted right now, and plenty of shear. Will have to
analyze the severe potential as the front gets closer.
Uncertainties include how quickly the front makes it into the area
and how much convection will occur through the morning ahead of
the stronger afternoon storms.

Sunday, high pressure develops over the Gulf with flow turning to
the west and southwest around this high. A shortwave is expected
to move across the southeast states with showers and
thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon. Instabilities right now look
to be slightly lower than Saturday, though still high, with
several thousand J/kg. Any activity should weaken fairly quickly
with sunset.

Monday and Tuesday, the high pressure should become the dominant
feature with most of the area remaining rain free each day. A
series of thunderstorms will move around the high, with most of
the coverage north of the area. The very far northern fringes of
central AL could see isolated to scattered convection each
afternoon.

By Wednesday, a low pressure will develop over the Plains and move
east. A frontal boundary with that low will move across the state.
The front should be stronger with the low pressure closer to the
state compared to the low moving through the Ohio Valley this
weekend. Though the wind field is expected to be widespread and
moderate.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

Low level flow will be from the southwest with plenty of moisture
advection over the area. MVFR ceilings are expected in the early
morning, with IFR ceilings by sunrise. Low level moisture should
remain high with at least MVFR ceilings through the afternoon. VFR
ceilings should prevail from late afternoon/evening through the
end of the TAF period, before a front and activity moves into the
area.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An overall dry trend will be in place through Friday. Minimum RH
values will be the 40s south to upper 50s in the north, with 20ft
winds around 9 to 12 mph. Rain enters the area Friday night
across the north with rain chances continuing off and on through
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  67  88  64 /   0  50  30  20
Anniston    89  69  87  67 /   0  30  30  20
Birmingham  89  70  87  69 /   0  40  30  20
Tuscaloosa  89  71  89  69 /   0  40  40  20
Calera      89  71  87  69 /   0  30  40  20
Auburn      89  69  87  69 /   0   0  20  20
Montgomery  92  71  91  70 /   0  10  30  20
Troy        92  70  91  69 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...24