Oxford, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS64 KBMX 051151
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
651 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025

 - There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Friday
   afternoon and evening with the primary risk being damaging
   straight-line winds.

-  There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms
   Saturday afternoon and evening with the primary risk being
   damaging straight-line winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025

This AM, our satellite pic is indicating lots of low level moisture
by way of stratus clouds. It`s not your typical calm night for all,
with a little overnight wind at the surface. This should keep any
fog isolated and not too dense or widespread. Now through midday,
there is only an isolated chance of a shower or two in the SE
counties. The upper low that we spoke about yesterday over the NE
Gulf moved toward us some since yesterday, has opened up, and is now
pushing NEWD into the SE US. This wave should begin to become
absorbed by the main flow as it continues to progress away from AL
tonight. This change will give way to a generally more weak WNW flow
over C AL around a building W/NW Gulf ridge.

Today will be somewhat similar to yesterday with the orientation of
rain chances (lowest NW-highest SE) except overall lower than
yesterday with the remnants of the shortwave and daytime heating. On
Friday, our upper flow and overall pops will be spread out more
evenly area wide with only slightly higher chances in the N closer
to some perturbations traversing through the flow around the top of
the upper ridge.  We will continue with our warming trend each day
with even some 90+ high temps possible for Friday. With this warm
and juicy air in place ahead of convection for Friday, we can`t rule
out a few strong to severe storms during the heat of the day with
damaging wind gusts being the main threat.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025

Very little change is expected in the overall pattern over the
weekend. The sub-tropical ridge will remain in place across Southern
TX and the Western Gulf with several waves expected to move through
the region in the westerly to northwesterly flow aloft.
Predictability in the timing and track of these MCSs can be
tricky as it depends on lingering boundaries from previous rounds
of activity. For Saturday, guidance struggles with the evolution
and track of the potential MCS across Central AL, but if it
materializes, we would see a damaging wind threat across the area.
The threat should continue into Sunday as well as another wave is
expected to move through the region. I would expect at least low
chances of strong to severe storms to continue each afternoon
through Tuesday as the stalled frontal boundary persists across
Central AL, proving a focus for the thunderstorm development.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025

Stratus clouds are present across much of C AL this morning with
MVFR cigs for most through 17-18z before going VFR. In between
there around sunrise some IFR cigs are also possible from ~12-14z
for MGM/EET. We have transitions back into a wetter pattern. More
SH/TSRA will be possible. Today the best chances will be at MGM,
so will have a have mention there after 18z. While convection may
occur at the other sites, it should be more isolated and harder to
pinpoint. Will leave out mention for rest ATTM. Convection will
be diurnally influenced and should become more sparce after
sunset.

KMGM will have AMD NOT SKED appended to the TAF UFN due to comms
issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms will move through the
area each day over the next few days and into the weekend. Winds
could become gusty near any thunderstorm activity. No major fire
weather concerns are anticipated as RHs remain on the higher side
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  66  89  69 /  20  10  60  30
Anniston    84  69  88  71 /  20  10  50  20
Birmingham  85  70  89  72 /  20  10  50  20
Tuscaloosa  88  71  90  72 /  20  10  50  10
Calera      85  71  88  72 /  20  10  50  20
Auburn      85  71  88  72 /  30  10  40  10
Montgomery  87  71  90  72 /  30  10  40  10
Troy        86  69  90  72 /  50  20  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08