Northport, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

718
FXUS64 KBMX 160741
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
241 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

 - There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather late
   Friday night into Saturday morning across the northern portions
   of Central Alabama and then a marginal risk late Saturday
   afternoon into Saturday evening across much of Central Alabama.
   Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will lead to southwest low and
mid level flow prevailing and bringing plenty of moisture to the
state. Today, the area should remain mostly rain free with plenty
of low level moisture keeping mostly cloudy skies through the
morning and early afternoon. High temperatures will be at or a
degree above the temperatures Thursday, in the upper 80s and lower
90s.

Tonight, a frontal boundary will approach the area, moving from
north to south through the state through the morning. CAMs are
showing the convection beginning in the northwestern counties
around midnight, if not slightly after, and then reaching the
middle of the state by sunrise and 7 am. There is some
uncertainty as to how much coverage this front will produce, and
how quickly the convection will make it`s way into the state.
Though with the parameters expected, severe thunderstorms are
possible in any cell.

Instabilities are between 1500-2000 J/kg, with DCAPE values
anywhere between 500 and 700 J/kg. LI values will be roughly -4,
with PW values in the 90th percentile to max for this time of
year. The soundings show decent dry air in the low and mid levels,
and with the moisture and anticipated evaporation/cooling aloft,
will forecast a decent chance for damaging winds in any strong thunderstorms.
Large hail will also be a possibility, especially in the cells
along the front that have more lift.

As the front moves south, models show a general decrease in
coverage, though models haven`t been stellar in any accurate
depiction of coverage lately. Would expect activity to continue
through mid morning, with a slow decrease in the damaging
wind/hail potential as the lift weakens. There should be a break
through the late morning and early afternoon before isolated to
scattered diurnal convection develops along the boundary left by
that front. Uncertainty remains in how much activity actually
remains through the morning, and how much clearing can be expected
that would allow for plenty of heating and instability for the
afternoon activity.

For these storms, instabilities will be higher, around 3000-3500
J/kg, especially in the west and southwestern areas of the state.
These storms could also produce damaging winds/large hail, though
the PW values should be slightly less. The afternoon activity will
be more conditional, and for now will maintain the level 1 of 5
risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire area.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

A series of shortwaves will move across the region Sunday into
Monday, with additional chances for rain or thunderstorms across
Central Alabama. The best rain chances will be confined to the
northern half of the area, with the highest rain and storm chances
coming Sunday afternoon. A trough over the Plains will move eastward
into Tuesday, with a surface low moving up the Ohio Valley dragging
a cold front through Central Alabama Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will return during this period as a
result. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the upper 80s
to low 90s across most places, which will be some of the warmest
days so far this year. Wednesday and Thursday are currently
projected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s behind the front.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

Low level flow will be from the southwest with plenty of moisture
advection over the area. MVFR ceilings are expected in the early
morning, with IFR ceilings by sunrise. Low level moisture should
remain high with at least MVFR ceilings through the afternoon. VFR
ceilings should prevail from late afternoon/evening through the
end of the TAF period, before a front and activity moves into the
area.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The dry trend continues today. Minimum RH values will be the 40s
south to 50s north, with 20ft winds up to 9 to 12 mph. Rain enters
the area Friday night across the north with rain chances continuing
off and on through the weekend. Min RH values should remain above 45
percent in most areas Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  67  88  67 /   0  50  30  20
Anniston    89  69  87  69 /   0  30  30  20
Birmingham  89  70  87  71 /   0  40  30  20
Tuscaloosa  89  71  89  72 /   0  40  40  20
Calera      89  71  87  71 /   0  30  40  20
Auburn      89  69  87  71 /   0   0  20  20
Montgomery  92  71  91  71 /   0  10  30  30
Troy        92  70  91  71 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...24