Montgomery, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

082
FXUS64 KHUN 160604
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
104 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Friday)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A closed low continues to move eastward into the Great Lakes
region as high pressure exists in the Gulf, allowing the Tennessee
Valley to be encapsulated in an area of moderately strong mid
level flow between the two systems. A strong LLJ (~40 kts) is
forecast to move into the region overnight, with higher forcing to
our NW. Assisted by WAA, there could be some shower development
from what is left of a lingering MCS earlier this evening as it
continues southeastward near our area. Primary timing for showers
would be between 4-7 AM. While we continue to be outlooked by SPC
for a low chance of strong to severe storms through 7 AM, we
continue to have low confidence in any thunderstorms
materializing. Low level lapse rates are weak and we are
influenced by a capping inversion. Therefore, we are advertising a
very low chance of a strong storm tonight with the potential for
gusty winds up to 30-40 mph. However, the WAA should keep lows
relatively warm as temperatures only drop into the low to mid 70s.

Friday, dry weather returns for most of the day as high
temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s. Gusty, southwesterly
winds up to 20-25 mph are forecast as an increased low level jet
moves into the area and begins to mix down. We will be monitoring
a low-medium risk for strong to severe storms Friday night into
Saturday morning, however, more on that in the short term section
below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

There is a low-medium chance of strong to severe storms Friday
night into Saturday morning- bringing threats of damaging winds,
hail, and tornadoes. Primary timing for these threats is 10 PM
Friday through 7 AM Saturday, which we have low-medium confidence
in.

As the aforementioned upper level low continues further into the
Great Lakes region, a cold front is forecast to stem southwestward
through the OH River Valley and into the Deep South. High pressure
in the Gulf will allow southwesterly flow to advect moisture into
the area ahead of the cold front arriving in the TN Valley. An
increasing LLJ (~60 kts) will provide additional forcing for
convective development ahead of the front. Current thinking is
that it will be supercellular in storm mode NW of our area before
upscaling into a linear system as it continues into the Tennessee
Valley. Our mean wind, if relatively tall storms are realized, is
around 50 kts. Therefore, storm motion will be fast as it
continues southeastward through the area. This, combined with
DCAPE values of 800+ J/kg as well as steep mid level lapse rates
allows us to continue advertising strong to damaging winds as the
primary threat with hail as a secondary threat. Tornadoes will
also be possible as low level streamwise vorticity continues to
appear in model hodographs. Outside of the severe threat, we also
have a low threat of flash flooding. Model sounding PWAT values
are ranging from 1.5-1.7", which is near or above the 90th
percentile per BMX sounding climatology. However, with fast-moving
storms, this will continue to be a low threat. We will be having
to monitor the capping inversion and if we are able overcome it as
model soundings have consistently shown a weak to moderate cap
over the area. Another complication is that CAMs continue to have
slight disagreements in timing- with some pushing it later than
what we currently have forecast. If this were to occur, we would
have less instability to work with as we lose diurnal heating
deeper into the overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, the line of storms should move out of the
area to the southeast by around 12Z. Dry conditions are forecast
to pursue the area behind the front with mostly clear skies,
however, this will be short lived as medium to high rain chances
(40-70%) return to the area by Sunday. This will be due to the
previously mentioned frontal boundary lifting back northeastward-
causing a potential MCS as it moves across the area. While there
is still model disagreement in our potential environment, there
could be enough instability to warrant another low end severe
threat with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Be sure to check
back in for updates on this system through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Shower/thunderstorm chances are forecast to decrease Sunday
evening into the overnight hours as the aforementioned potential
MCS continues northeastward. However, low chances (30% or less) of
rain remain north of the TN River as the front is forecast to
stall out to our NE through the early part of the week. Another
upper level low is forecast to move through the Central Plains
early in the week as well- forcing a weak ridge over the Tennessee
Valley to continue eastward and PVA to take over the area by
Tuesday. This will allow increasing shower/storm chances over the
area, once again, as we continue to remain in an active pattern
through the long term period. Since this is several days out,
there is still uncertainty in specific placement of the potential
trough through mid week and subsequent threats for strong storms.
Therefore, we continue to encourage everyone to check back in for
updates with this active weather pattern we remain in.

Otherwise, we will generally cool through this period as highs go
from the 80s on Monday to the 70s on Thursday. Overnight lows are
forecast to drop into the 60s-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours with light
southerly winds that will ultimately veer to the southwest and
increase throughout the day. MVFR cigs are forecast to move in
through the morning hours but VFR conditions will return during
the afternoon. Wind gusts up to 20kts will be possible at times.
Dry conditions are forecast through the afternoon hours, but
chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase by the late
evening and overnight hours. Some storms could be strong to severe
overnight, and we will have to monitor for wind shear as this
system moves through.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25