Mobile, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

222
FXUS64 KMOB 152358
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
658 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Now through Friday night...

An upper level ridge will expand northeast from the western Gulf
across the southeast through the period as a strong trough digs
across the northern plains. Ahead of this trough, a weak front
will move into the southeast on Friday. However the strong ridge
over the area will keep the front stalled well north of the area.
This will maintain dry conditions will increasingly hot temps.
Highs will be in the low 90s inland to mid 80s along the coast.
These temperatures combined with relatively high dewpoints will
likely result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will
be in the upper 60s and low 70s.

We upgraded the rip current risk to high today based on beach
reports. It will drop to moderate tonight through Friday. /13

Saturday Through Wednesday...

The heat is the main story through at least early next week as
ridging allows high temperatures to soar into the mid to low 90s
inland (mid to upper 80s at the beaches) each day.

The ridge aloft flattens over the weekend as a trough continues to
pivot across the Midwest. As the ridge flattens, a few subtle
shortwaves slide across parts of the Southeast and Deep South
through the zonal flow. Meanwhile, a surface high over the western
Atlantic will cause an approaching boundary to stall across the
central part of Alabama/Mississippi (north of our area). There
will be just enough moisture across the northern portions of our
area, along with the help of the nearby boundary, to allow for a
few showers and storms to develop in the afternoon hours on both
Saturday and Sunday. The southern portion of our area has a better
chance of staying dry over the weekend with slightly drier air
thanks to the upper level ridge parked over the Gulf waters. The
ridge aloft begins to build again early next week with
southwesterly flow aloft. Rain chances remain non-existent on
Monday and Tuesday. Another trough pivots across the Midwest and
Plains as we head into the middle part of the week and this one
may be far enough south to provide a more substantial chance for
rain area-wide.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains MODERATE on Saturday and
falls to a low risk Saturday night through Monday. Our rip current
MOS probabilities indicate that the risk may increase at some
beaches on Tuesday, but there`s no clear signal in the
probabilities as to whether the risk will be a low or moderate
yet. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

MVFR ceilings will spread from the coast northward over the entire
region this evening through around 2am. Ceiling will continue to
lower to IFR levels late tonight until shortly after sunrise on
Friday. Patchy to areas of fog forming late tonight should result
in MVFR to localized IFR visibilities. The fog will dissipate and
ceilings will lift by 16/15z. Light southerly to southwesterly
winds overnight will increase to around 10 knots with gusts to
near 20 knots around mid-morning Friday. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

No marine impacts expected through the period. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  87  72  89  71  88  71  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   74  85  74  86  74  86  73  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      74  84  75  86  74  86  75  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   68  93  69  93  69  93  67  94 /   0   0   0  10  10  10   0   0
Waynesboro  69  92  71  93  69  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  20  10  10   0   0
Camden      69  92  70  91  69  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  20  20  20  10   0
Crestview   68  90  69  92  69  92  67  92 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob