Gulf Shores, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

709
FXUS64 KMOB 160622
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
122 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Now through Friday night...

An upper level ridge will expand northeast from the western Gulf
across the southeast through the period as a strong trough digs
across the northern plains. Ahead of this trough, a weak front
will move into the southeast on Friday. However the strong ridge
over the area will keep the front stalled well north of the area.
This will maintain dry conditions will increasingly hot temps.
Highs will be in the low 90s inland to mid 80s along the coast.
These temperatures combined with relatively high dewpoints will
likely result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will
be in the upper 60s and low 70s.

We upgraded the rip current risk to high today based on beach
reports. It will drop to moderate tonight through Friday. /13

Saturday Through Wednesday...

The heat is the main story through at least early next week as
ridging allows high temperatures to soar into the mid to low 90s
inland (mid to upper 80s at the beaches) each day.

The ridge aloft flattens over the weekend as a trough continues to
pivot across the Midwest. As the ridge flattens, a few subtle
shortwaves slide across parts of the Southeast and Deep South
through the zonal flow. Meanwhile, a surface high over the western
Atlantic will cause an approaching boundary to stall across the
central part of Alabama/Mississippi (north of our area). There
will be just enough moisture across the northern portions of our
area, along with the help of the nearby boundary, to allow for a
few showers and storms to develop in the afternoon hours on both
Saturday and Sunday. The southern portion of our area has a better
chance of staying dry over the weekend with slightly drier air
thanks to the upper level ridge parked over the Gulf waters. The
ridge aloft begins to build again early next week with
southwesterly flow aloft. Rain chances remain non-existent on
Monday and Tuesday. Another trough pivots across the Midwest and
Plains as we head into the middle part of the week and this one
may be far enough south to provide a more substantial chance for
rain area-wide.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains MODERATE on Saturday and
falls to a low risk Saturday night through Monday. Our rip current
MOS probabilities indicate that the risk may increase at some
beaches on Tuesday, but there`s no clear signal in the
probabilities as to whether the risk will be a low or moderate
yet. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

MVFR conditions across the area will slowly decrease to IFR
ceilings this morning. Some localized instances of IFR visbys
will also be possible as patchy fog develops mainly over the
Florida Panhandle. Ceilings will quickly return to VFR during the
day tomorrow with light southerly winds around 10 knots gusting to
15 knots. Reduced ceilings to MVFR will likely occur tomorrow
evening. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

No marine impacts expected through the period. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  72  89  71  88  71  88  71 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   85  74  86  74  86  73  85  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      84  75  86  74  86  75  86  75 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   93  69  93  69  93  67  94  67 /   0   0  10  10  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  92  71  93  69  92  68  92  70 /   0   0  20  10  10   0   0   0
Camden      92  70  91  69  92  68  92  69 /   0   0  20  20  20   0   0   0
Crestview   90  69  92  69  92  67  92  67 /   0   0  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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