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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161527
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. 15
UTC surface observations show 20-30 mph winds just ahead and behind
a cold front pushing southeast across the Plains. Recent guidance
continues to suggest localized elevated conditions are likely across
eastern IA into western IL this afternoon (as outlined by the
previous discussion below). More widespread elevated fire weather
conditions are probable across KS and parts of the southern High
Plains where RH in the 20-30% range and 15-25 mph winds are likely;
however, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near/below
the 50th percentile (which is supported by a lack of large fire
activity in recent days and regional web cams that show extensive
green up across KS), which should modulate the overall fire weather
threat.
..Moore.. 05/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
Within the base of a deep mid/upper-level low moving across the
Upper MS Valley, a 70-kt southwesterly speed maximum will emerge
over the Midwest during the afternoon. Beneath the core of the
midlevel jet, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
parts of northern IL -- where diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent
air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced
flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will climb into the 80s F,
while RH falls to around 25-30 percent. These warm/dry conditions,
combined with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with
higher gusts), will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over
areas that missed out on precipitation over the past 24 hours.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 161832
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of
the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ.
Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25
mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains.
Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in
the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery
anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was
considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain
near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture
values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be
driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit
fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and
northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear
warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions
are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are
generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the
past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed.
..Moore.. 05/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly
speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across
southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee
cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains.
...Southern New Mexico...
Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from
north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope
trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the
enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally,
a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will
contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with
higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit
RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather
conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162009
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger over the
weekend and into early next week across parts of the southern High
Plains. Long-range guidance continues to depict the amplification of
an upper trough over the Southwest this weekend before ejecting into
the Plains early next week. As this occurs, dry southwesterly flow
should overspread much of the Southwest/southern High Plains, which
will promote multiple days of fire weather concerns. After the
ejection of this wave, ensemble guidance suggests low-amplitude
long-wave ridging will become established over the central CONUS.
This should promote muted surface pressure gradient winds along with
isolated rain chances for most regions with the exception of the
Great Basin and Southwest.
...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Southern High Plains...
Southwesterly flow over the southern/central Rockies will promote
lee troughing along the southern High Plains through early next
week. To the west of a sharpening dryline, west/southwesterly
downslope flow will promote multiple days of dry/windy conditions
with afternoon RH values expected to fall into the single digits to
low teens with 15-25 mph winds. Widespread elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are expected both afternoons as mid-level
impulses propagate into the Plains and result in an eastward surge
of the dryline. The fire weather threat should be greatest across
south-central NM into far West TX where ERCs are currently between
the 80th to 95th percentile. With northward and eastward extent,
ongoing spring green up should modulate the potential for fire
spread.
...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Sacramento Valley...
Dry northerly winds are expected through the Sacramento Valley both
D3/Sun and D4/Mon. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance
suggests winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH values falling
into the 20-30% range. Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible, and some fire threat may materialize given ERCs increasing
to near the 80th percentile. However, confidence in
sustained/widespread critical conditions remains too limited for
highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 05/16/2025
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