ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 170556
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA...
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the
central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of
moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into
the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a
lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while
a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High
Plains.
...Western NM and eastern AZ...
In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal
heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will
yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the
afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced
deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient
peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained
westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures.
This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop
dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ.
..Weinman.. 06/17/2025
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170557
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of
strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a
result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the
Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained
westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25
percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions.
..Weinman.. 06/17/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Day 3/Wednesday...
An upper-level short wave with attendant mid-level wind maxima will
promote breezy downslope/gap winds to the Columbia Basin where dry
fuels remain supportive of fire spread. Meanwhile, a broad ridge
axis roughly aligned along the Continental Divide will support above
normal temperatures for much of the West aiding in drying fuels
ahead of a stronger upper-level trough for the latter part of the
week.
...Day 4-6/Thursday-Saturday...
A potent upper-level trough and attendant stronger mid-level flow
will impact the western U.S. beginning on Day 4/Thursday introducing
a broad fire weather threat into the Great Basin and portions of the
Southwest. Considerable southwest surface winds of 20-30 mph and
very low relative humidity will coincide with dry fuels to promote
wildfire spread (including potential expansion of existing wildfire
footprints) across the region. Critical probabilities were added to
northwestern Nevada as well as southeastern Nevada and southwest
Utah. Primary fire weather threat expands eastward into Utah and
western Colorado on Day 5/Friday as upper-level trough shifts/nudges
eastward. Model guidance consensus suggests a deceleration of
eastward advancement of main trough axis by Day 6/Saturday, allowing
enhanced mid-level flow to remain over portions of the Four Corners
and Southwest into the weekend, while the Pacific Northwest
experiences some relief with cooler temperatures and some rainfall.
In addition, dry post-frontal winds should increase the fire weather
threat across the California Central Valley where a Critical 40
percent probability area has been maintained.
...Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday...
The multi-day fire weather event could linger into early next week
around the Four Corners region as a troughing pattern persists
across the Western U.S. However, decreasing mid-level flow as the
upper-level trough diffuses should limit magnitude of winds although
dry conditions and warm temperatures are still a high likelihood.
..Williams.. 06/16/2025