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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170556

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN
   ARIZONA...

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the
   central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of
   moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into
   the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a
   lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while
   a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High
   Plains.

   ...Western NM and eastern AZ...
   In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal
   heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will
   yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the
   afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced
   deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient
   peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained
   westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures.
   This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop
   dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ.

   ..Weinman.. 06/17/2025
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170557

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of
   strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a
   result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the
   Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained
   westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25
   percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions.

   ..Weinman.. 06/17/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   ...Day 3/Wednesday...
   An upper-level short wave with attendant mid-level wind maxima will
   promote breezy downslope/gap winds to the Columbia Basin where dry
   fuels remain supportive of fire spread. Meanwhile, a broad ridge
   axis roughly aligned along the Continental Divide will support above
   normal temperatures for much of the West aiding in drying fuels
   ahead of a stronger upper-level trough for the latter part of the
   week.

   ...Day 4-6/Thursday-Saturday...
   A potent upper-level trough and attendant stronger mid-level flow
   will impact the western U.S. beginning on Day 4/Thursday introducing
   a broad fire weather threat into the Great Basin and portions of the
   Southwest. Considerable southwest surface winds of 20-30 mph and
   very low relative humidity will coincide with dry fuels to promote
   wildfire spread (including potential expansion of existing wildfire
   footprints) across the region. Critical probabilities were added to
   northwestern Nevada as well as southeastern Nevada and southwest
   Utah. Primary fire weather threat expands eastward into Utah and
   western Colorado on Day 5/Friday as upper-level trough shifts/nudges
   eastward. Model guidance consensus suggests a deceleration of
   eastward advancement of main trough axis by Day 6/Saturday, allowing
   enhanced mid-level flow to remain over portions of the Four Corners
   and Southwest into the weekend, while the Pacific Northwest
   experiences some relief with cooler temperatures and some rainfall.
   In addition, dry post-frontal winds should increase the fire weather
   threat across the California Central Valley where a Critical 40
   percent probability area has been maintained.

   ...Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday...
   The multi-day fire weather event could linger into early next week
   around the Four Corners region as a troughing pattern persists
   across the Western U.S. However, decreasing mid-level flow as the
   upper-level trough diffuses should limit magnitude of winds although
   dry conditions and warm temperatures are still a high likelihood.

   ..Williams.. 06/16/2025
      




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